China must pick the least bad option to resolve Hong Kong crisis. A PLA crackdown is not it
- Hongkongers would almost certainly treat Chinese government forces as invaders, and resistance would be fierce and casualties unavoidable
- An exodus of expats and elites would follow, and the Hong Kong economy – still a bridge between China the rest of the world – would almost immediately collapse
Hong Kong, fast forward to 2047
For starters, Hong Kong’s 31,000-strong police force is not up to the task of carrying out such a crackdown. Not only does it lack the manpower; its officers may refuse to use deadly force. After all, there is a big difference between firing rubber bullets at a crowd and murdering civilians.
Here is where the next revolution may take place in Hong Kong
Hong Kong’s residents would almost certainly treat Chinese government forces as invaders, and mount the fiercest possible resistance. The resulting clashes – which would likely produce high numbers of civilian casualties – would mark the official end of the “one country, two systems” arrangement, with China’s government forced to assert direct and full control over Hong Kong’s administration.
With the Hong Kong government’s legitimacy destroyed, the city would instantly become ungovernable. Civil servants would quit their jobs in droves, and the public would continue to resist. Hong Kong’s complex transit, communications, and logistics systems would prove easy targets for defiant locals determined to cause major disruptions.
After the Tiananmen crackdown, the Communist Party’s ability to reinstitute control rested not only on the presence of tens of thousands of PLA troops, but also on the mobilisation of the party’s members. In Hong Kong, where the party has only a limited organisational presence (officially, it claims to have none at all), this would be impossible.
And because the vast majority of Hong Kong’s residents are employed by private businesses, China cannot control them as easily as mainlanders who depend on the state for their livelihoods.
Refuse the protesters everything, and they will fight to the end
If Chinese soldiers storm the city, an immediate exodus of expats and elites with foreign passports and green cards will follow, and Western businesses will relocate en masse to other Asian commercial hubs. Hong Kong’s economy – a critical bridge between China and the rest of the world – would almost instantly collapse.
When there are no good options, leaders must choose the least bad one. China’s government may loathe the idea of making concessions to the Hong Kong protesters, but considering the catastrophic consequences of a military crackdown, that is what it must do.
Minxin Pei, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and the author of China’s Crony Capitalism, is the inaugural Library of Congress Chair in US-China Relations. Copyright: Project Syndicate