Despite US unease over China and Russia in the Arctic, there are ways for everyone to be a winner

As China deepens Arctic activities and ties with Russia, the US has ramped up both its rhetoric and military spending
Given the rich natural resources in the region, finding ways to cooperate is in everyone’s interest

Nong Hong

Published: 3:00am, 9 Sep 2019

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US Vice-President Mike Pence, during a visit to Iceland on September 4, warned of his concerns about “Russian aggression” in the Arctic and China’s increasing activities in the region.

After Secretary of State Mike Pompeo openly challenged China’s and Russia’s Arctic intentions at the May 2019 Arctic Council Meeting in Finland, this was another senior US official who framed the US engagement in the Arctic by targeting Russia and China.

Even before Pompeo, former secretary of state Rex Tillerson had warned that the United States was “late to the game” in the Arctic and needed to start making policy, security, and economic investments in the region or be left on the sidelines. All these mark a dramatic policy shift from the previous US administration, which saw climate change as the clear and present danger to Arctic security and viewed the Arctic as a venue for cooperation and research.

The assumption of this policy shift is consolidated with statements from the US military as well. The United States has always been a reluctant power in the Arctic compared with other littoral states. It has invested very little into its Arctic resources – with no real ports along Alaska’s Arctic waters, little military presence, and insufficient diplomatic engagement.

However, in February, the US government allocated a total of US$675 million in funding for new icebreakers, which American military leaders see as vital in competing in the Arctic with Russia and China. The US Department of Defence, in its new Arctic Strategy, described the Arctic as a potential corridor for “great power competition” and pledged to increase its force posture, contest excessive maritime claims, and work with allies and the US Coast Guard to ensure that the rules-based order in the Arctic persists. US military leaders have emphasised the strategic importance of the Arctic and US military exercises involving the Arctic are slowly increasing.

Apparently, a dramatic shift of the US Arctic policy is taking place, which sees the region through the lens of security and economic competition with Russia and China. Given that there are grounds for tensions among the great powers to increase both within and beyond the Arctic, improving these relations requires finding possibilities where mutual interests can be developed.

A careful review of US-China relations in the Arctic suggests that this is an arena where the two nations, for the most part, enjoy converging interests. China has the potential to be a strong partner for the US if it can match up its own interests in the Arctic with American ones and together address questions important to both nations.

For the US, Chinese investment would benefit Alaska, which makes the US an Arctic nation. Ninety per cent of the state-funded part of the Alaskan budget comes from oil tax revenue. The Trump administration has reopened onshore and offshore areas in the Arctic for development, such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas drilling, although judicial review has slowed this process. On August 23, the US Bureau of Land Management released documents that pushed two controversial Arctic Alaska projects – one a road, and the other an oilfield.

Chill out China and America, the Arctic is not worth a cold war

The picture is more mixed for China. While increased US military capacity may be a detriment to China, expanded energy production, if it becomes profitable in the future, could potentially provide new sources of oil and gas for China in the medium term and help to hold down the costs of its imported energy. In this context, China sees Alaska as an opportunity to satisfy its liquefied natural gas (LNG) appetite.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, after the Mar-a-Lago summit with US President Donald Trump in April 2017, met Alaskan Governor Bill Walker and discussed the economic opportunities, including LNG shipments. Before Trump’s trip to China a few months later, the White House announced multiple memorandums of understanding between US and Chinese oil and gas corporations.

Besides the energy sector, there is potential for law enforcement cooperation in the Arctic. With the creation of the Arctic Coast Guard Forum in October 2015, the Arctic states agreed to develop cooperation among their coastguard agencies. Although China is not a member of this group, its coastguard cooperates with its US counterpart through the North Pacific Coast Guard Forum.

China’s emergence as an Arctic player takes place at a time of rising tensions with the US over a variety of uncertain factors

Meanwhile, the two countries’ coastguards are finalising the details of an agreement to improve communication, on the lines of the 2014 multilateral Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, seeking to avoid miscommunication among navies.

Looking forward, even though the Arctic is often described as a region of cooperation, opportunities for greater tensions may also increase as interest among the great powers in this arena continues to rise. Despite strong economic ties, US-Chinese relations also seem likely to remain tense, especially given the trade disputes dividing them. Such uneasy relations can extend into the Arctic.

The US administration will always play the “China card” in shaping foreign policy, this is unavoidable. Whether this card can be played wisely in the Arctic region depends on whether the two states view each other’s roles in a rational way.

China’s emergence as an Arctic player takes place at a time of rising tensions with the US over a variety of uncertain factors, including, for example, China’s emergence as a global naval power, and a deepening Sino-Russian partnership on some cooperative projects in the Arctic.

For US policymakers, a general question is how to integrate China’s activities in the Arctic into the overall equation of US-China relations. China, while expecting the Arctic states to respect its interests in shipping, energy and polar research, should work hard to ease the suspicions by emphasising the four principles stated in its 2018 Arctic policy white paper, “respect, cooperation, win-win result and sustainability”.

Mutually beneficial cooperative partnerships that promote and enhance these interests will surely be the most appropriate way forward in a region of growing global importance.

Nong Hong, PhD, is executive director and senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies (US). www.chinaus-icas.org

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