Opinion | How China and the US can avoid going to war, as tensions rise over Xi Jinping’s naval ambitions
- China’s assertiveness is drawing comparisons with imperial Germany and raising the spectre of war with the US. To avoid a clash, Beijing must stop challenging US allies in the South China Sea and avoid policies that confront vital US interests
While history suggests that war is likely, there is one example in which conflict was avoided: America’s rise to power under Pax Britannica. During the 19th century, the US showed how an emerging power can ensure peace with a dominant power, by adopting policies that did not threaten vital British interests.
America’s leaders recognised that the US could develop into a great power without challenging British dominance, in particular the supremacy of the Royal Navy and its commercial shipping.
For a small seafaring nation such as Britain, dependent on imports of food and raw materials, control over the oceans ensured survival and deprived enemies of the option of invading or blockading it and starving it into submission. These fears drove British national security calculations for centuries and often led to war.