Opinion | US-China trade war: How the winners in this brave new world of tariffs get ahead

But this is not strictly true, as business executives in Jakarta will tell you, for one. Beyond the companies that benefit from a tariff slapped on a competitor, there are large categories of investments whose business model can work around⁠ tariffs and restrictions.

The latest scheduled US-China trade talks suggest a glimmer of hope for agreement but any deal is likely to be limited in scope, and any tariff delayed or removed can reappear just as easily. (A savvy few will also be thinking ahead to the US election next year, and it is unlikely the president wants to defend a weak China deal just as his Democratic challengers gear up.)

The economies on China’s southern rim represent a massive “demilitarised zone”. Many firms were already shifting production here as Chinese labour costs rose but trade friction has triggered an acceleration. Factories here can sell into both the US and China with less fear of getting stuck in the crossfire.