Black swan in the skies over Hong Kong
- City once an oasis of calm and stability in a world of endless conflicts is now on the edge of an abyss, and one must ask how long it can survive
Hong Kong has been compared to Northern Ireland during the years of “the Troubles”. I am rather reminded of Beirut. There was a haunting description by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the financial mathematician, of his idyllic childhood growing up in this once great cosmopolitan and religiously tolerant city in his bestseller The Black Swan.
When troubles first started, everyone thought they would last only for a few weeks, at most months. Those who took flight thought they would return shortly when the problems blew over.
Many, it turned out, ended in permanent exile. Both internal politics and external conflicts tore apart the city and the country itself. The collapse of his beloved Beirut into civil strife and war was for Taleb an example of what he calls a “black swan”, extremely low probability events that turn out to have a huge, often devastating, impact. Of course, after the event, everyone and his dog have their own theory and explanation.
Hong Kong is on the edge of such an abyss. Who would have predicted this in early June? Anyone who claimed they did is either lying or deluding themselves. The city had always been an oasis of calm and stability in a world of endless conflicts.
Hong Kong: a failed political experiment
Now, it is being battered by powerful and destructive forces from both domestic developments and outside factors over which we have little control.
Many young people, along with some who are not so young, have decided they can’t accept the political status quo. If they can’t change it, then they will bring down the whole system, come what may.
Since both the Hong Kong and central governments have refused to offer much in the way of political reform, our young rebels have reached the conclusion they call lam chao, that is, “self-destruct together”.
Meanwhile, the city’s status as the “golden goose” for China and a valuable neutral territory for the United States and the West is being threatened. In their escalating rivalry, two of the world’s most powerful countries no longer consider Hong Kong so special as needing to be shielded and protected.
President Xi Jinping has openly identified Hong Kong and Taiwan as a major risk and challenge for the Communist Party. Both the US Congress and White House increasingly consider the city more as leverage over China than an asset in global trade.
Under such adverse circumstances, how long can Hong Kong survive?
