Opinion | ‘One country, two systems’ can continue past 2047 but the conversation has to start now

The status of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region is set out in two slogans: “one country, two systems” and “50 years no change”. There seems to be an assumption that the two are linked, that nothing must change in the Hong Kong system for 50 years, but that after 2047, the capitalist system will be replaced by the socialist (communist) system.

This is assumed to mean the Basic Law will expire, Hong Kong will become just another city within China, with mainland Chinese laws applying and Hong Kong laws ceasing to apply.

In my view, these assumptions are not justified by anything in the Basic Law or in the Chinese constitution. On the contrary, the Basic Law contemplates that Hong Kong’s system will develop in significant ways, does not say that communism will become the system of government, or that the Basic Law will expire in 2047, or that Hong Kong’s laws, with all the rights and freedoms they enshrine, will cease to apply.

The only reference to 50 years in the Basic Law is in Article 5: “The socialist system and policies shall not be practised in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and the previous capitalist system and way of life shall remain unchanged for 50 years.” The English translation seems to have a comma missing after “unchanged” and the first part of the statement is not limited as to time, but the intention was evidently to say that the socialist system would not apply for 50 years.

However, that does not mean communism will then take over from capitalism, that Hong Kong’s special administrative laws will be replaced by mainland Chinese laws on all subjects, or that the Basic Law will expire.