Hong Kong should enact national security laws, then seek a more liberal way to elect the chief executive

Beijing will never bend to mob coercion but is reluctant to send in the PLA and wants to preserve ‘one country, two systems’. A sensible plan would be to combine enactment of Article 23 with seeking a more progressive package for universal suffrage

Andrew Leung

Published: 8:00am, 27 Oct 2019

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The saga of violence and vandalism continues. A Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act on Capitol Hill overhangs like the Sword of Damocles. The city broods in resignation and helplessness.

What does Beijing think? And how will all this end?

After the government agreed to withdraw the controversial extradition bill , the protests’ nature fundamentally changed. The remaining demands undermine levers of governance: the government, police, law and order, and the Basic Law. Street violence increasingly targets symbols of “one country”, including the national flag and emblem, and China-related banks and businesses.

With its pro-independence banners and slogans, proclaimed plans for a “provisional government”, a Hong Kong anthem, and White House meetings with activists, the protest movement is being defined by Beijing as an attempted colour revolution. The ulterior motive is to turn Hong Kong into a surrogate to undermine China’s national interests.

Things are likely to play out under three scenarios. First, the nuclear option of invoking Article 14 or 18 of the Basic Law. The former provides for inviting the local People’s Liberation Army garrison to intervene. The latter allows the National People’s Congress Standing Committee to apply mainland laws by declaring a state of emergency beyond Hong Kong’s control.

The local garrison is on high alert. Army and paramilitary units have gathered in large numbers in nearby Shenzhen, capable of arriving in Hong Kong in 10 minutes, and making arrests within hours.

Albeit cocked and loaded, this nuclear option would destroy “one country, two systems”, attract severe Western sanctions, probably lasting decades, and dash the Chinese dream. But it cannot be ruled out; Beijing cannot sit on its hands and watch Hong Kong burn.

Second, a robust, multitrack approach to restore law and order. Top officials in the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and its Hong Kong offshoot would probably to be replaced by Beijing confidants with national security experience.

Hong Kong’s police will continue to enjoy support for vigorous law enforcement. The Emergency Regulations Ordinance, recently resuscitated to impose a mask ban, remains ready as a last resort.

The government will explore all possible avenues, including augmenting police resources with personnel in other disciplinary services.

Any complaints against the police will continue to be investigated by the Independent Police Complaints Council with internationally renowned experts. An independent commission of inquiry may be necessary after the violence dies down. At present, given the pervasive anti-police mood, it is likely to become a witch hunt. Moreover, under the law, any evidence tendered to the commission would be exempt from prosecution, providing a convenient sanctuary for rioters.

Speculators betting heavily on Hong Kong’s turmoil are likely to have their fingers badly burnt when short positions are liquidated by the end of October. This may further dampen support for violent protests.

Meanwhile, the chief executive cannot be replaced without triggering a lengthy electoral process. There is also no candidate more capable to clean up the mess and bridge the social divide, including housing for the young and restless.

Third, Hong Kong’s legitimate aspiration for one-man, one-vote to elect the chief executive. Relevant Basic Law provisions would ensure that candidates are pre-screened by a nominating committee, weeding out separatists. While pre-screening is undemocratic, Hong Kong is not a country. Without the safeguard of Article 23 (against sedition and subversion), the central government is unlikely to concede, not with rising anti-Beijing, pro-independence sentiment.

Nevertheless, Hong Kong remains strategically useful in supporting China’s development trajectory, such the Greater Bay Area, Belt and Road Initiative, and renminbi internationalisation. These initiatives are likely to continue beyond 2047, when the “one country, two systems” formula is due to expire.

If the formula works well for China, there is no reason not to extend it for another 30-50 years. Hong Kong would be of little use if it becomes Shanghai’s poor cousin.

The three scenarios are neither mutually exclusive nor entirely separate. It is wishful thinking that Beijing would eventually buckle under a breakdown of Hong Kong’s law and order. This grossly underestimates the central government’s resolve in defending Hong Kong, whose return to the motherland is of great national pride.

Moreover, the ugly side of Hong Kong’s protests has rallied the Chinese population behind Beijing.

The dirty secret of Hong Kong’s protests: hatred of mainlanders

Additionally, according to an Edelman survey on public trust in government, China has the world’s highest rating, at 88 per cent, against 42 per cent in Britain, and 40 per cent in the US. China’s confidence in trade negotiations with the US also speaks volumes.

China is unlikely to bend to mob coercion. A sensible way forward is to combine enactment of Article 23 with seeking a more liberal package for universal suffrage. The nominating committee could be made more representative, allowing a broader range of candidates to take part, including democrats acceptable to Beijing.

A successful “one country, two systems” will also serve the interests of a world wanting to preserve a vibrant base at China’s doorstep with far greater freedom of operation than the rest of the nation.

The weekly ritual of violence and vandalism is getting pointless and tiresome. People are wondering whether this is more mob tyranny than righteousness. The numbers of protesters are dwindling as fatigue and diminishing support set in. It is time to return to reality and wisdom.

Andrew K.P. Leung is an independent China strategist

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