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Alex Lo
SCMP Columnist
My Take
by Alex Lo
My Take
by Alex Lo

Hong Kong crisis a big opportunity for US and Taiwan

  • Taipei and Washington are already operating aggressively on the assumption of a second term for President Tsai Ing-wen, thanks to her clever exploitation of city unrest to boost her popularity
I am not one for conspiracy theories. Some people think Taiwan and the United States actively helped organise and fund the protests in Hong Kong. That’s possible, since there have been known contacts between some prominent protesters and agencies associated with the US government.
Far more likely, though, the political crisis just flared up and created an opening for Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and her American allies to discredit “one country, two systems” and rescue her once plummeting popularity. The real prize is being won in Taiwan: a second term for Tsai in January. Hong Kong has been a sideshow for Americans, but a highly useful one.

Early this year, Washington would have considered toning down its diplomatic rhetoric and even slowed down weapon sales to the island. That was after Tsai quit as chairwoman of the Democratic Progressive Party following catastrophic defeats in county and city elections the previous November.

Back then, the Kuomintang’s Han Kuo-yu emerged like a political rock star, having promised more money and business from the mainland, politics be damned. A Kuomintang president from next year will at least tone down the anti-China rhetoric and play a more neutral role between the US and the mainland.

Hong Kong rebellion a big boost to Chinese nationalism

Once a presidential front runner, Han was, however, ineptly slow to recognise the enormous implications of the unrest in Hong Kong for the island. Now, polls repeatedly show he is behind Tsai by double-digit percentage points.

Thanks to Hong Kong, it’s all politics on the island, and that means rising separatist sentiments, no doubt encouraged by the US. Tsai now speaks openly about sovereignty and defending the island against the mainland.

With growing confidence and assertiveness, the Tsai government has publicly asked Washington to help assess the island’s combat readiness just as her US counterpart Donald Trump promised closer military cooperation, including normalising weapon sales.

The latest: tanks, armoured vehicles, heavy equipment transporters and anti-aircraft missiles worth US$2 billion; and 66 fighter jets worth US$8.2 billion, the largest order of its kind since late US president George H.W. Bush sold 150 fighter jets to Taiwan in 1992.

On the diplomatic front, a bill is passing through the US Congress to penalise any of the island’s dozen-plus formal friends who switch diplomatic recognition to the mainland. Thanks to Hong Kong’s crisis, Washington and Taipei are already operating on the assumption of a second Tsai term.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: City crisis an opportunity for US, Taiwan
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