Why I volunteered to provide medical support at Chinese University war zone

So, three apparent victories in the war of words, images and messaging that parallel the more visible action of demonstrators on the streets. What are the protesters to do with these wins?

Communicating with some inside the movement, it seems there is now, understandably, a regrouping.

While giving up is unlikely, there is a sense that these recent developments may engender a shift from street marches to more institutionalised – we might say “conventional” – activism; a shift from civil direct action to political debate, appealing in particular to the international spotlight to bring heat to the situation.

Two recent protest movements and their outcomes may be sobering in this context; the international Occupy movement and the Arab spring. Both movements were linked by their status as a reaction to the 2008 global financial crisis and their desire to overturn a system they saw as dysfunctional.

Both achieved victories in that they garnered massive support and attention and highlighted important issues. Both captured the narrative. In the case of the Arab spring, dictators like Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi were deposed, directly as a result of street demonstrations.

However, both movements gradually folded back into more political and electoral spaces and the street approach faded away. For the occupiers in the US, where it started, the movement morphed into political formations with many, for example, getting behind the Bernie Sanders campaign for the 2016 presidential elections.

The Arab spring activists also fell back (often forcefully) into conventional politics or were simply crushed by post-dictatorship dynamics. In Egypt and Libya, where the movement arguably had its most spectacular immediate success, political elites soon closed ranks. The situation in both countries now is as bad as it has ever been.

How can Beijing make Hongkongers proud again to be Chinese?

With the benefit of hindsight, it might be concluded that exchanging the vibrancy and communalism of direct action for the generally more mundane process of politics clearly dissipated both these movements’ energy.

All the current cases have already taken some years to unfold (possible acts of genocide against Rohingya started in the 1970s), may take years to conclude and may not result in the outcomes many would feel are necessary.

Protesters have well and truly discovered that street action is hard work, is highly risky and has its limits. Therefore the game of policy, geopolitics and elections becomes tempting given the latest positive signs, but recent wins may be something of a poisoned chalice.

The people’s movement now faces a choice between falling back into standard political discourse, to maintain the battle on the streets or to find a mélange of all strategies to take forward.

Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protesters have shown themselves, for the most part, to be brave and dedicated advocates for freedom and rights. They have also shown a great degree of creativity and discipline. They will need all of those qualities now, as the next phase of this struggle gets under way.

James Rose has worked as a media strategist and analyst for a number of pro-democracy movements including in Zimbabwe, Myanmar and Western Sahara