Hong Kong will never be Macau. Beijing’s comparison of the two shows it is in denial
A big part of Beijing’s problems with Hong Kong is its consistent misreading of public sentiment. Calls for it to be more like trouble-free, compliant Macau only show that China’s leadership remains out of touch
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council minister Chen Ming-tong, in speaking against fake news and political interference, cheekily told Beijing recently not only to respect the island’s democratic election system but also to learn from it. It’s almost hard to recall – or even imagine – that it was only a little over a year ago that Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s Democratic Progressive Party suffered a humiliating defeat in local elections.
Tsai, of course, is no dummy. Extraordinary circumstances do require extraordinary measures. And so, it made sense for Tsai to provoke Beijing. Recall the first day of 2019: Beijing commemorated the 40th anniversary of its landmark statement, a public letter to the Taiwanese known as the “message to compatriots in Taiwan”.
Tsai’s own raising of the “sovereignty” issue was returned in kind by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who said Taiwan should take after the Hong Kong model – “one country, two systems” – as its safest bet since Beijing is determined to achieve reunification, even if that means using force.
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Raise the issue of sovereignty with Beijing and it’s as certain as the law of gravity that it would go berserk. And an agitated hardline-leaning use-of-force-threatening Beijing would deliver exactly what Tsai needed: ammunition to evoke the visceral fear among her people. And when it comes to elections, nothing is more effective than instilling emotions – anxiety against a threat. Maybe Chen wanted Beijing to take note of that.
Tsai now looks to have her re-election bagged and it was nothing short of a miracle – six months ago, Tsai’s approval rating was so low that people openly wondered whether she would even be nominated to run. The crisis of Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor’s making has had impact well-beyond Hong Kong’s borders. Lam brought Tsai’s political career back from the brink.
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People wave flags at a campaign rally of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei on November 17. Her re-election at the presidential polls in January next year appears certain. Photo: EPA-EFE
With public sentiment renegading again in the “renegade province” (Taiwan) and “the prodigal son” (Hong Kong) going on another prodigal binge, it is no wonder Beijing is turning its attention to, and the spotlight on, the trouble-free Macau, especially since it will soon be celebrating the 20th anniversary of reunification with China. Macau is now the main feature, considered the shining model of “one country, two systems”; so much so that the chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, Li Zhanshu, basically told Hong Kong to emulate Macau in implementation.
