Universal suffrage is now out of question
- If there is no silent majority, there is also no realistic scenario under which Beijing would negotiate a viable electoral reform with the local opposition
So, there is no silent majority. At most, there is a substantial silent minority. Since last month’s landslide victory by the pan-democrats in the district council elections, local activists and foreign pundits have been busy outdoing each other in ridiculing how out of touch Beijing and its allies in Hong Kong have been.
No doubt it feels good proving them wrong. But it doesn’t augur well for political reform or universal suffrage. Once the central government has learned the error of its ways, it would kill any chance of reform. Politically, Hong Kong people fighting for democracy are actually in a worse position than they were in 2014, when Beijing was at least willing to entertain the possibility of “one person, one vote”.
Unfortunately, most people today think Hong Kong is better positioned because they have the illusion of numbers. Just look at the crowds at a protest march on Sunday and the numbers at the district polls!
However, without a silent majority, a key operative assumption of the Hong Kong and central governments goes out the window, namely, that Hong Kong people are practical or pragmatic.
After half a year of unrest, ‘800,000 marchers’ take to Hong Kong streets
In fact, this has been an argument made by the pan-democrats in the past two decades: Beijing should trust Hong Kong people in not going against the rest of China once they have been granted “genuine” democracy.
Now, after six months of unrest and the readiness of large swathes of the local population to tolerate their home city going up in flames, that argument and its corresponding assumption have gone up in smoke, too.
The protest movement combines many grievances; some stem from poor housing, unaffordable homes and extreme economic inequalities. But if there is a common denominator, it is the anti-China stance, which is not only against the communist state but mainland Chinese people in general; indeed, most things Chinese, including Mandarin.
So, in a hypothetical general election, what would happen? The candidate most willing to exploit anti-Chinese sentiments would get the most votes; those willing to work with Beijing would be denounced as traitors. You already see this in Taiwan: any pro-China or “one country, two systems” advocacy is an electoral poison pill.
While the Basic Law – Hong Kong’s mini-constitution – would allow Beijing to veto the electoral victor as chief executive, it would for sure trigger a political crisis.
After the last six months, there is no longer any realistic scenario under which Beijing would negotiate a viable electoral reform with the local opposition.
