US President Donald Trump’s chief trade negotiator Robert Lighthizer told the US House Ways and Means Committee on February 27 that any final agreement between the United States and China would be specific, measurable and enforceable at all levels of the Chinese government and that he had no interest in a “soybean solution”. But it appears that the so-called phase one deal was exactly that. At the onset of the trade war, I had dinner with the US representative of a major Chinese state-owned company. He casually remarked: “Don’t worry, Trump and Xi [Jinping] will strike a private deal between the two to support their respective domestic political agenda. It will be largely a show.” And what a show it has been. Cynics in the US and China have always argued that Trump would end the trade war whenever he felt he could declare victory to his voters. If this is the case, it is hard to imagine that the Trump administration would rock the boat by headlining the more difficult “phase two” negotiations in an election year. Earlier this year, I interviewed Graham T. Allison, author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? . Allison said he spoke to Chinese officials during a trip to Beijing soon after Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Argentina, and learned that, after carefully studying the negotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada New Trade Agreement (USMCA), the Chinese concluded that there was only a 10 to 15 per cent difference between the old North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement and the new deal. Given this, the Chinese would not be likely to satisfy more than 15 per cent of the “ hundreds ” of US trade representative’s demands of China. US Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat cheerleader of Trump’s hardline approach to China, was not impressed by the recent US-China accord. He tweeted : “President Trump has sold out for a temporary and unreliable promise from China to purchase some soybeans. Once again, President Trump cannot be relied upon to the do the right thing for American workers and businesses.” Lighthizer said China has agreed to raise its annual purchases of US agricultural goods to between US$40 billion and US$50 billion annually over the next two years. But US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said China was reluctant to put the promise into writing. Apart from the uncertainty surrounding the agreed terms of the deal, the other deliverables also fail to excite trade observers: China has already announced it will further open up its financial services sector and its new foreign investment law will come into effect on January 1, 2020. Business leaders must talk down US-China trade tensions The new law lays the ground for equal treatment and protection of foreign investment, explicitly banning forced technology transfers and promising better intellectual property rights protection. But it will take time to see if administrative proceedings and the licensing process at the different levels of government and law enforcement follow the spirit of the law. Similarly, the provisions on currency manipulation look like window dressing, as commentators generally believe that China is not currently manipulating its currency in response to the trade war, despite the US’ negative designation in August. As trade-discussion fatigue begins to set in on both sides, breaking up negotiations into phases is a practical move. The accord allows the Trump administration to cancel its next round of tariffs on Chinese goods set to take effect on December 15. The US will leave 25 per cent tariffs on US$250 billion in imports in place while cutting existing duties on another US$120 billion in products to 7.5 per cent. Wang Shouwen, China’s vice-minister of commerce, indicated that the US plans to scrap tariffs on Chinese goods in phases, but did not detail the conditions and schedule of the purported rollback. Is the phase one trade deal more important than China joining the WTO? Lighthizer said the Trump administration has not promised to roll back tariffs in the future but that the US would not impose new duties as long as China negotiates in good faith. Lighthizer also said the phase two negotiations would not wait until after the 2020 US presidential election, but did not provide a time frame. It remains to be seen whether the existing tariffs will be sufficient to result in the “ structural changes ” needed to get to the heart of US businesses’ grievances. It is also unclear whether, as The Wall Street Journal reports, the final agreement contains a “snapback” provision to allow the US to reinstate the tariff rates, without incurring retributions, if China fails to deliver on the phase one promises. China has repeatedly reiterated its commitment to economic reforms and opening up. However, it is also sending conflicting signals about the role of state-owned companies and tightening of political controls. Therefore, absent a dramatic nosedive in China’s economy, I am not optimistic that the US and China will come to an agreement on state subsidies and state-mandated industrial initiatives, let alone the even more difficult question of cross-border digital economy. Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He recently called for making China’s socialist capitalism stronger and better in a People’s Daily op-ed on November 22. While the article champions the importance of privately held companies, it emphasises the central role played by state-owned enterprises. Perhaps more damaging to the US is the loss of the psychological lever. The trade war has radicalised the nationalist wing of the Chinese government, which advances the view that the entire episode is nothing more than Trump’s manoeuvring his voter base, particularly in the farm belt . Within China’s political circles, the consensus is that the US initiated this confrontation not because of legitimate trade concerns, but to “contain China”. Newsweek is conducting an online survey, asking: “Has Trump’s trade war with China been a waste of time and resources?” We will soon find out what Americans think and whether the “soybean solution” will garner bipartisan support. Chiu-Ti Jansen, with advanced degrees from Yale and Columbia, is the founder of multimedia platform China Happenings and a former corporate partner of international law firm Sidley Austin