Editorial | Australian bush fires fuel need for serious look at energy future

The disastrous Australian bush fires have stoked the global climate-change debate. Scientists, activists and believers alike see them as evidence of the increasing frequency of natural disasters attributable to man-made global warming. The words of Australian economics professor and former government adviser Ross Garnaut, author of an independent review of scientific evidence on the impact of climate change in 2008, now seem prescient. The former Australian ambassador to China (1985-88) wrote: “Fire seasons will start earlier, end later and be more intense. This effect increases over time but should be directly observable by 2020.”

 This prediction failed to spark a national sense of urgency about the need to switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The issue has been politically charged by economic and ideological arguments over carbon pricing and national energy policy. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has acknowledged the impact of climate change on bush fires. But tighter emissions standards are a hard sell in conservative political circles, which point out Australia accounts for only 1 per cent of global emissions, and depends on coal for much of its electricity generation and on coal exports for economic growth. Moreover, the present centre-right government claims it is on track to meet its emission-reduction target under the Paris climate accord.

As for the current fires, climate-change sceptics and deniers point to a historical pattern of fires and regeneration of vegetation. They link their intensity to three years of drought, the build-up of natural fuel and record temperatures. Putting the blame on heatwaves is unconscious irony. On top of the loss of life and property, Australia faces an astronomical bill for these fires – or for the consequences of global warming, if indeed there is a link. Conservative estimates put it well into billions of dollars, while some analysts say it could cost the economy A$20 billion (HK$107 billion) in lost output. It is not possible to put a value on the loss in the fires, or indirectly as a result of destruction of their environment, of more than a billion mammals, birds and reptiles, including thousands of koalas.

A sense of shared loss has united people in adversity. Perceptions are important. Morrison remains haunted by criticism for taking leave as the crisis developed instead of staying home to take control. As a result the government has been on the back foot defending its climate-sceptic position and commitment to coal. Polls show the public is becoming increasingly concerned about climate change, but divided on the mix of energies needed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The government needs to engage more open-mindedly on the issues and start a national debate on how to strike a responsible balance.