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Taiwan elections 2020
Opinion
SCMP Editorial
SCMP
SCMP EditorialandSCMP

EditorialTsai’s victory a big test for Beijing in resetting cross-strait relations

  • Just as in Hong Kong, winning the hearts and minds of young people on the island is critical for eventual reunification

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Tsai Ing-wen was a beneficiary of Hong Kong’s ill-fated extradition bill and the protests it ignited. This enabled her to shift the narrative from unpopular reforms to fear of the implications of one country, two systems for Taiwan’s identity. Photo: AP
SCMP EditorialandSCMP

If a week can be a long time in politics in terms of changes in voter sentiment, then a year can defy prediction. An example has to be the landslide victory of President Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan’s elections on Saturday. Just over a year after the independence-leaning DPP’s humiliating defeat in local elections, Tsai has won a second term with a comfortable victory over the Kuomintang candidate Han Kuo-yu, who has a more conciliatory stance towards Beijing.

The reasons for such a turnaround are not hard to find. Key factors include the political unrest in Hong Kong and an improvement in economic growth during the United States-China trade war. The Hong Kong factor has to be seen in the context of the proposal by Beijing of the “one country, two systems” concept as the basis for cross-strait reunification. Tsai was a political beneficiary of Hong Kong’s ill-fated extradition bill and the protests it ignited. This enabled her to shift the narrative from unpopular reforms to fear of the implications of one country, two systems for Taiwan’s identity.
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Tsai’s re-election adds more uncertainties to cross-strait relations and the already tense relationship with the US, with fears of retaliation and increased pressure from Beijing. So far, Beijing’s reaction has been relatively measured, reiterating basic concepts such as the “one-China principle”.

Tsai has expressed a welcome willingness to talk to the mainland, subject to dialogue being on an equal footing – a problematic demand without reversal of her refusal to accept the one-China consensus of 1992. Beijing needs to accept that many Taiwanese do not accept one country, two systems at this stage, given Hong Kong’s recent turmoil, and that it should consider more flexibility in dealing with Taiwan. The KMT should reflect deeply on its heavy defeat and the need for reform if it is to regain public support.

Regionally, it is crucially important for Taiwan and the mainland to find a way to cool tensions, because cross-strait instability threatens all countries in the region. Fear of a takeover by the mainland may have played a big part in the DPP’s win, but Tsai’s priority over the next four years should be how to improve the island’s economy and reduce cross-strait risks. After all, while it is understandable at present that many Taiwanese do not accept one country, two systems, there is no future in simply seeking independence or provoking Beijing.

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