Putin’s reforms may be more about legacy building than power grabbing as he looks at retirement, Deng Xiaoping-style
- After 20 years, Putin may be looking to protect his legacy by negotiating a controlled power handover in Russia, retiring from day-to-day administration while keeping a firm hand on policy direction as Russia’s father figure – much as China’s Deng Xiaoping did
The most popular theory is that Putin’s constitutional reforms are an attempt to lay the foundations for a switch from president to prime minister in 2024. Another popular theory is that he might entrench himself in the State Council and rule from the shadows.
The context of this announcement also has people curious as to the permutations of these reforms. Under Putin, Russia has experienced a civilisational revival with significant implications for its foreign policies, especially in territories formerly part of the Soviet Union.
However, beyond the popular perception that these reforms are the continuation of a now decades-long project by Putin to strengthen both himself and Russia, a closer look at the reforms, especially regarding the State Council, suggests a potentially different motivation, one with a distinctive Chinese flavour.
Rather than holding on to power, the constitutional reform might actually be the start of Putin outlining a vision to hand over power in a controlled manner. In other words, it is about ensuring his legacy, while leaving him enough political levers to influence the direction of Russian politics.
This is not an unpalatable proposition for Putin. He is acutely aware that history – including Russian history – does not tend to be kind to strongmen in the end.
And, in both scenarios, the legacy of the strongman is irrevocably tarnished. Therefore, the Deng model offers an appealing retirement plan for Putin.
The question is, if this scenario eventuates, who will be Putin’s Jiang Zemin? The ousted prime minister (and former president), Dmitry Medvedev, despite his friendship with Putin, seems an untenable candidate as his public image has been significantly tarnished after he shouldered the blame for many unpopular political decisions in the latter years of Putin’s regime.
Why Putin’s ‘constitutional coup’ is unlikely to trigger wave of protests
The next four years are going to be interesting as Putin’s plans for Russia are likely to crystallise. But, regardless of what happens and whether Russia follows the Chinese model, the wisdom of Russian humour is likely to remain on point – it is difficult to imagine that Russian citizens will be able to elect their own president any time soon.
Emilian Kavalski is the Li Dak Sum Chair Professor in China-Eurasia relations and international studies and the director of the Global Institute for Silk Roads Studies at the University of Nottingham Ningbo, China. Nicholas Ross Smith is an assistant professor of international studies at the University of Nottingham Ningbo China