If China fails to follow Germany’s net zero carbon example, the fight against global warming may be lost

The coal-cutting efforts of the rest of world will be for nought unless China, the world’s biggest carbon emitter, slashes its reliance on the fossil fuel
With the US and Australia shirking their carbon responsibilities, the world must hope that China will follow the German example instead

David Dodwell

Published: 9:00pm, 31 Jan 2020

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Germany’s agreement this month to eliminate coal-fired electricity generation by 2038 – providing €40 billion (US$44 billion) in compensation to its coal-mining regions and leading power generators – sends a powerful message to all economies promising to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. It reaffirms Europe’s leadership in efforts to slow the pace of global warming.

But the simple, brutal reality is that unless China makes similar powerful strides, Germany and the rest of us are spitting in the wind.

And since China’s coal-fired power generation continues to rise, with little prospect of a reversal this side of 2030, it seems likely that all progress made elsewhere in the world in cutting coal use will do nothing to slow the relentless rise in carbon emissions. It can be of little comfort that more than 70 countries worldwide now target net zero carbon emissions by 2050, unless China too can set – and meet – this goal.

It is easy to condemn China’s failure to stem its growing demand for coal, yet no other economy has done more over the past decade to develop renewable energy. The country’s wind-powered capacity has jumped from 1,260MW in 2005 to 184.3GW in 2018 – twice the 94GW installed in the United States. Its solar-powered capacity has quadrupled to 174GW between 2015 and 2018, accounting for about 36 per cent of the world’s capacity.

At the end of 2018, China’s renewable energy capacity was around 728GW, almost a third of the world total and, in 2017 alone, it invested US$127 billion on renewable energy – about 45 per cent of the global total.

So China has been no laggard in developing renewable power. But its problems are sheer size, and pressure for growth. And as the source of about 28 per cent of all carbon emissions worldwide, if China fails to cut its emissions dramatically, then the inescapable reality is that no one can succeed. It is no exaggeration that our efforts to keep global warming under control depends to a large extent on China.

Over the past decade, China has made significant progress. Reliance on coal for power generation has fallen steadily and is expected to account for just 55 per cent of total power this year as the government shuts down small coal mines and old coal-fired plants. Meanwhile, reliance on renewable energy has grown from 17.6 per cent of production in 2017, to 26.7 per cent at the end of 2018.

But, with a total of 122.6GW of new capacity being built in China last year, and a similar amount under construction or being planned this year (note, France’s total installed capacity is 121GW, and Britain’s 90GW), the depressing reality is that growth in renewable energy has slowed, and a significant proportion of these new plants are coal-fired.

The German government is not wrong to be patting itself on the back – though many environmental groups focused on the scale of global warming and the challenges of carbon emissions have complained that Germany’s ambition to eliminate coal is not speedy enough – but its scale challenges pale in significance to those facing China.

Its total installed power capacity is around 200GW – one tenth of China’s – and with a mature power market, it does not face China’s pressure for capacity growth.

The awkward, ugly reality for China is that if it is to succeed in lifting its population into middle-class affluence, it is going to have to be smarter, and more innovative, than any economy has ever been.

It is unforgivable that affluent countries such as the US and Australia are ignoring their global responsibilities to restrain carbon emissions growth, and inexcusable that their leaders are obfuscating the science to excuse themselves of the responsibility. Unfortunately, this does nothing to mitigate the responsibility that sits on China’s shoulders to transform the ways we produce and use electricity.

It must stick in President Xi Jinping’s craw that the US (where profligate, energy-intensive lifestyles mean per capita production of carbon amounts to 16.5 tonnes a year, more than twice China’s 7.4 tonnes per capita), is refusing to share the responsibility of tackling the global warming challenge. However, that cannot in any way excuse China’s own efforts to ameliorate the threat.

Because China’s challenge is so huge, it will need to be addressed on many fronts. Of course, the shift to renewables must accelerate, probably with astute use of subsidies and carbon pricing.

Nuclear power capacity should be developed at speed. Per capita power consumption must fall, with a focus on efficiencies in generation, transmission and use. Coal use for steel and cement production will need to be curbed. The shift to electric power for transport must accelerate.

It is likely that global market pressures against coal and fossil fuels may help to accelerate this process. Fossil fuel subsidies are being attacked, making the economics of renewable power more attractive.

More international banks are coming under pressure to cut their lending to fossil fuels – coal in particular. Credit-rating agencies are developing environmental, social and governance metrics that will make it harder and more expensive for companies linked with fossil fuels to invest.

Beijing is also going to need to review its support for coal-fired plants outside China (for example, in Bosnia and Serbia), many linked with its belt and road projects.

China’s green bonds show how we can fund climate change goals

At present, China’s leaders seem to be vacillating in their commitment to renewable energy, and to squeezing their reliance on coal. The cavalier actions of governments that should know better – such as those in the US and Australia – can only make it easier for Beijing to find excuses.

From this point of view, Germany’s unequivocal commitment to purge itself of coal by 2038 is both welcome and timely. The challenge facing China may be formidable, but if Germany can take a stand, surely here is an example that Beijing can follow. Whether we succeed in keeping global warming under control is likely to depend on how China responds.

David Dodwell researches and writes about global, regional and Hong Kong challenges from a Hong Kong point of view

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Renewable challenges

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