The economic impact of the coronavirus has been quick and sharp. But how long will it last?
- From the epicentre in China to the rest of the world connected by trade and supply links, no industry or sector is apparently safe from the damage wrought by the epidemic. The longer-term costs are hard to predict, but pain is certain
It is still too early for any official data to emerge on the economic impact of the coronavirus, but it is going to be dramatic. It is not possible to close down huge swathes of “the world’s factory” and second-largest economy and not lose output.
Wuhan is locked down; Beijing, Shanghai and Singapore are off the boil, and Hong Kong and Shenzhen city centres bask in a perpetual, pollution-free, sunny, Sunday morning time warp.
Zhang Ming, of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says first-quarter growth could come in at 5 per cent, and “possibly below”.
The Economist Intelligence Unit is braving 4.9 per cent for full-year growth; Oxford Economics 3.8 per cent for the first quarter. Diana Choyleva, of Enodo Economics, believes China grew 3.7 per cent in 2019 – and possibly lower this year. Jörg Wuttke, of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, targets 2 per cent or below.