My Take | Opposition banks on protest chaos for Legco poll wins

The novel coronavirus crisis is far from over but the city’s anti-government protest movement is already dying to hit the streets. So, on the pretext of the six-month anniversary of the brutal August 31 police raid at the Prince Edward MTR station on August 31, protesters with their bricks, petrol bombs and roadblocks, sent the poor old Mong Kok neighbourhood back into chaos again at the weekend.

Question: why can’t they pick on wealthy neighbourhoods and give our tycoons and their relatives a taste of the protest violence and smell of tear gas?

There is, however, cold logic to this madness that is destroying Hong Kong society and the economy. The more naive ones may still believe the empty slogan – “Five demands, not one less” – but opposition politicians are salivating at the prospect of taking over more than half the seats in the Legislative Council elections in September. On this, they are replaying the same strategy that won them all but one of the 18 district councils in November.

This is to cause as much mayhem and social discontent as possible. Instead of creating “a silent majority” that demands a return to peace and quiet, according to their political calculus, the population will get angrier and more frustrated with the government, and cast their votes for the opposition or anyone who runs on an anti-government platform.

That logic worked spectacularly in November, but will it work again in September? There are several complications. Though the protesters and opposition figures won more than 90 per cent of the seats in the district council polls, the aggregate votes for the pro-establishment and opposition blocs were divided roughly into 40 and 60 per cent, respectively. The landslide was possible because the vote-counting system is one of “first past the post”.

With Legco, the geographical – or directly elected – seats, along with the five so-called super-seats, are based on proportional representation, while the corporate voting – or functional constituency – seats are “first past the post”. The chances for another landslide are statistically diminished.

Meanwhile, by September, after more than a year of social unrest, a major health crisis and a recession, can anyone be sure how the locals will vote? The government may have bad policies, but the opposition has no policy besides rabble rousing and throwing our children at the barricades.

Hong Kong people are, in fact, caught between the Scylla and Charybdis, so choose your own trap.