Opinion | Opposition activists can dream, but it’s still business as usual for the US and Hong Kong

Last week, I attended a United States-Hong Kong dialogue in San Francisco hosted by the World Affairs Council, a non-partisan forum for exchange of ideas about international issues. The event brought together Executive Council members and opposition legislators of Hong Kong, as well as US officials including the consul general of Hong Kong and Macau and a State Department official for regional affairs.

The fact that all these participants managed to get together for several days during the coronavirus outbreak reflects the importance of the issues we were discussing. One hot topic on the agenda was US-Hong Kong economic relations.

Under the US-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, Washington treats Hong Kong as a separate jurisdiction from China for trade and investment purposes. If the US stops recognising Hong Kong’s special trade status, there will be a major impact on economic relations between them. Any downgrading of Hong Kong’s status could seriously harm the commercial interests of both Hong Kong and the US.

However, the city’s trade status appears to be at risk after US President Donald Trump ratified the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act last year. This requires the US State Department to conduct an annual review of Hong Kong’s autonomy, rule of law and special status. It also calls for sanctions against individuals the US believes are responsible for human rights transgressions in Hong Kong.

Under existing Magnitsky laws, the US government already has powers to impose sanctions on foreign offenders against human rights. But the possibility of any disruption to Hong Kong’s relations with the US is very worrying. Also, the idea that individuals in Hong Kong might be subject to US sanctions has alarmed some people linked to the government – and excited several opposition activists, who have drawn up lists of names.