EditorialTalks give world an opportunity to avoid nuclear weapons nightmare

The United States sparked fears of a new nuclear arms race when it pulled out of a key missile treaty with Russia little more than six months ago. Hopes of preventing a race are now focused on another pact credited with helping keep us safe since the height of the Cold War – the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which came into force 50 years ago this month. More importance now attaches to a five-yearly treaty review conference set to be held at the United Nations headquarters in New York next month.

The US pulled out of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) signed in 1987 after Washington and Nato accused Russia of violating it by deploying a new type of cruise missile, which Moscow has denied. Russia suspended its own obligations to the treaty shortly afterwards. It is reassuring therefore that the five permanent members of the Security Council, including the US and Russia, have marked the anniversary of the NPT with a joint declaration celebrating “the immeasurable contributions” this landmark treaty has made to international security and prosperity and reaffirming their commitment to it. Such a consensus is increasingly rare these days.

With more countries having become de facto nuclear powers or acquiring nuclear technology, and with huge investment in the next generation of nuclear weapons, it is understandable that old fears were revived by the collapse of the US-Russia pact. At the same time, technological advances have lowered the bar for producing weapons-grade material. How to manage that remains a challenge.

Current nuclear arsenals are only about one-fifth their size when the NPT came into effect, thanks largely to arms control and the end of the Cold War. But the reductions were unlikely to have been achieved without the moral pressure channelled through the NPT, apart from its goal of preventing proliferation.

The arsenals of the US and Russia still account for more than 90 per cent of the total number of warheads. Nine countries are known to possess nuclear weapons, but fears of much greater proliferation by the 21st century have, thankfully, not been borne out.

With international tensions rising, disarmament deals can play an important part in maintaining stability. The demise of the INF treaty is a setback. There has to be concern about the survival of perhaps the most important Cold War agreement – the New Start treaty limiting long-range nuclear weapons, which is due to expire next February. The NPT may not be perfect but next month’s conference is a chance to refocus on stopping nuclear weapons becoming a nightmare for humanity and to restore confidence in international arms control.