No one is safe from the coronavirus until all are safe. That’s why Europe and China must help Africa

After the US defunded the WHO, the European Investment Bank has stepped up to help Africa
Africa is strategically important to China, and Beijing must realise that times like these require trade-offs between its national goals and the global good

Winston Mok

Published: 1:00am, 13 May 2020

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The worst is not behind us; it is “yet ahead of us”, the World Health Organisation has warned. Back when the rest of the world watched the horror in Wuhan from a distance, few could have imagined that Italy and Spain would one day be worse affected by the coronavirus.

Back then, the United States looked towards the Pacific with a false sense of security after restricting travel to and from China, when the real danger of contagion was lurking in Europe, on the other side of the Atlantic. However, for all the deaths and economic pain endured in these advanced economies, the world hasn’t seen anything yet.

If and when the pandemic hits the poorest and most vulnerable, up to 190,000 in Africa – more than twice the US death toll – might die from Covid-19 in the next 12 months, according to the WHO. Social distancing is difficult in crowded slums. Many do not have running water to wash their hands. Lockdowns will deprive people of livelihoods.

Even nations like Singapore and South Korea, which were most successful in fighting early outbreaks, are now struggling with second waves of the coronavirus. In East Asia, the new cases have largely been imported from the US and Europe. The US has been hit hard partly because it is fighting the pandemic on two fronts – the Pacific and the Atlantic – at the same time.

Europe will face new waves from all directions: from within, from across the Atlantic and from the Middle East and Africa. Europe can’t escape its proximity to Africa and the Middle East, which are among the regions most vulnerable to Covid-19. Europeans should help their neighbours, not for humanitarian reasons but for self-preservation. No one will be safe from Covid-19 until all are safe.

European countries have shown little camaraderie in their responses to Covid-19. Nor have they, with the exception of Germany and a few others, shown foresight. It will be a great challenge for Europe to manage its own recovery and help others at the same time.

Yet, there are promising signs. After the US defunded the WHO at a critical time, the European Investment Bank has stepped in and joined the WHO to help Africa. And Europe recently held a virtual summit on vaccine development, while the US stayed away and China sent a low-level representative.

Coronavirus is helping Xi Jinping solve his Donald Trump problem

Given their medical resources and geographic proximity, Europeans are best placed to help their former colonies in Africa. However, East Asian nations that have been successful in fighting Covid-19 can also offer valuable lessons.

Humanity’s fight against the novel coronavirus requires a new kind of East-West multilateralism. We need a partnership of equals that is no longer dominated by the US, which has retreated into domestic partisan politics.

Africa, which has been dubbed the new China, receives significant investment from Beijing and is strategically important. Besides, willing or not, China has a responsibility to Africa amid the pandemic, given its unrivalled manufacturing capacity for medical supplies.

As seen in the contrasting outcomes in East Asia and Europe, anticipation and early action are key. To be effective, Europe can’t just react to desperate calls for help from Africa or the Middle East. Modelling should be used to predict transmission hotspots.

According to the WHO, tens of millions in Africa might be infected. This is all the more dire given Africa’s poor health infrastructure. With a paucity of intensive care unit beds and ventilators, Africa cannot afford to play catch-up like Italy or Spain.

In Africa, an economic shutdown may be more deadly than Covid-19

South Korea’s model of comprehensive testing, tracing and isolation is perhaps the only way to avoid disaster. In addition, given the lack of options in Africa, traditional Chinese medicine may have a place to shine. It is relatively cheap, easy to dispense, and thus suitable for developing countries.

For now, there is reason to be hopeful. Having observed outbreaks in Europe and East Asia, many African countries have taken vigilant and even innovative measures to contain Covid-19. It would be humbling if some of the poorest countries, with very limited resources, ended up handling the crisis better than the richest nations.

For China, Covid-19 has come at an inopportune time: Beijing aimed to eradicate poverty by 2020, and build a moderately prosperous society by 2021. While this centennial goal remains laudable, China must not be constrained by a self-imposed milestone when it is facing the crisis of the century in an unpredictable world.

Worldwide, the unemployment epidemic brought on by lockdowns is pushing people into destitution. The middle classes in China and the US alike are falling into poverty. In Africa, nearly half of all jobs might be lost. By the end of the year, more than half a billion people could face privation and 265 million, starvation.

Decades of progress in poverty reduction worldwide may be reversed. In this context, China’s poorest – often small-plot farmers who can live on the land – are hardly in the most precarious position now.

In the Confucianist world view of Beijing, moderate prosperity provides the material foundation for the ultimate goal of “great harmony”, which includes broad compassion for others. At the current juncture, it is not possible for China to achieve its material and moral goals in sequence.

Just as the people of Wuhan suffered tremendously to buy time for the rest of the world, China may need to make difficult trade-offs between its national goals and the global good. China’s actions can speak louder than US provocations; genuine kindness can succeed where the words of China’s diplomats failed.

Epidemics have brought about the downfall of many a dynasty in Chinese history, and they are often construed as a sign of divine displeasure. But an outbreak does not have to mean the loss of the Mandate of Heaven; it may be a test.

World leaders are tested from time to time to see if they deserve mandates from the people. By showing universal compassion, China can seize the moment and usher in a golden era, one which cannot be measured by material prosperity.

Winston Mok, a private investor, was previously a private equity investor

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