US Covid-19 blame game is pushing China and Russia closer together. Are we heading for a new Cold War?

In drawing in Russia, the US-China conflict could become far more dangerous, and more inclined to proxy conflicts, with global interdependency today making any minor escalation particularly menacing

Danil Bochkov

Published: 11:00am, 14 May 2020

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The Covid-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc worldwide. The global economy is expected to contract sharply. The International Monetary Fund draws a sombre picture, predicting that last year’s 2.9 per cent growth will reverse to minus 3 per cent this year, its worst performance since the Great Depression.

The repercussions of the coronavirus, which are not confined to economics, are likely to galvanise geopolitical competition. But there is little evidence that it could seriously weaken China or disrupt the Sino-Russian bond.

US President Donald Trump has launched an array of stinging rebukes, reprimanding China for concealing the truth about the viral outbreak. He went as far as threatening to kill the phase one trade deal signed earlier this year, which could be the last straw for world trade that has already been severely disrupted.

The US and its allies are working to redirect supply chains away from China. The Cold-War-like state of US-China relations has been further exacerbated. And this economic and political rivalry was reinforced last year when China was described as an adversary that is “not Caucasian”.

US officials direct all their criticism at China’s Communist Party, which makes the confrontation more ideological.

The Covid-19 pandemic has triggered more discussion among American officials about pushing back against China, Russia and Iran, which are reportedly disseminating false information about the virus’ origins and spreading propaganda. In this fight, the US seeks to work with like-minded democracies.

With all these moves, the US is pushing China and Russia closer together. If, until recently, it was mostly Russia that was scolded for the world’s misfortunes, now it is China’s turn. This resonates with US policymakers as well as some British officials.

Similarly, in the early 1970s, US-China relations enjoyed a honeymoon period as the Soviet Union’s relations with both countries degraded.

02:06

This started in the late 1950s with the Sino-Soviet ideological break-up, followed by tit-for-tat blame games: Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev blamed China’s Mao Zedong for the border skirmish in 1959 with India, and later for the 1962 border war with Soviet-backed India.

US-China relations, meanwhile, were dramatically improving, culminating in the first visit by a US president to China, in 1972.

Nowadays, the US is shaping Russia-China amity. Last year, relations reached a more strategic level after Russia helped China build its missile attack early-warning system.

In economic terms, relations remain asymmetrical. Last year, the countries set a goal of doubling trade volume to US$200 billion by 2024. This presents huge challenges and may well be reassessed in light of the pandemic.

For the first quarter of this year, despite demand and supply shocks brought on by the pandemic, the value of Russia-China trade experienced a 3.4 per cent growth – the result of a surprising 17 per cent rise in Russian exports to China. Meanwhile, China’s trade with the European Union, the US and Japan plummeted dramatically: by 10 per cent, 18 per cent and 8 per cent respectively.

The increase in Russian exports may be a result of China’s oil buying spree after the dramatic fall in prices. China has stockpiled 76 million barrels of oil since the coronavirus lockdowns. In March, Beijing reportedly bought a record volume of 1.6 million tonnes of Russian oil for loading at sea the following month.

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Russia’s non-energy exports to China in January grew 46 per cent year on year, mostly on the back of increased sales of copper, poultry and fish, but unlike last year, it also featured the delivery of classified defence and space equipment valued at US$23 million.

Moscow has also showed solidarity with Beijing against US attacks on the World Health Organisation, noting that such moves reflect American attempts to distract from its failure to successfully manage the outbreak. Russia’s foreign ministry stressed that all attempts to claim compensation from China are “completely unacceptable”.

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In a May 9 phone call, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed the importance of protecting the victorious outcomes of the second world war, upholding multilateralism and preventing any attempts to distort history. Xi, in his congratulatory remarks, pointed out that Russia and China had made an indelible contribution towards victory, and saving humanity.

That somewhat contradicts the US-British interpretation, which highlights the victory of America and Britain over the Nazis on May 8, 1945. Such ideological collisions only contribute to the growing misunderstanding between countries, slowly eradicating the few things that remain as an epitome of joint achievements.

The US-China confrontation presents huge challenges for global stability. Unlike the Cold War, this is taking place among the new realities of a modern world order that features greater globalisation and interconnectedness, and less polarisation.

There is no distinct division of ideological or socio-economic spheres of influence. The new US-China rivalry is more dangerous and more inclined to proxy conflicts involving many other actors. The high level of global interdependency makes any minor escalation particularly menacing for all parties concerned.

This is a long-term rivalry that may force other countries to choose sides in an “us or them” ultimatum. America’s recent Covid-19-inspired allegations, along with many other unfavourable acts, are inevitably pushing Russia and China closer.

In these troubling times, it is vital that everyone support multilateralism if we are to avoid a new Cold War.

Danil Bochkov is an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council

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