George Floyd protests: Trump risks carnage if he unleashes anti-insurrection federal troops on Americans

If the US president carries out his threat, the latest dismaying development under his watch, it would mean invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807
Such a move would spell disaster for not just the US but also the world order. Warnings from military leaders must not be brushed aside

Andrew Sheng

Published: 5:00pm, 5 Jun 2020

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In 49BC, Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon river with his 13th Legion and marched into Rome – a move so pivotal that today, “crossing the Rubicon” describes a decision marking the point of no return.

We are in an epoch where facts are stranger than fiction. Since Donald Trump’s 2016 election, we have experienced one of the most severe pandemics since the 1918 Spanish flu, the warmest years in recorded history, the sharpest recession and unemployment levels since the 1930s, the longest United States stock market bull run (2013-2020), the largest central bank monetary expansion in living history, record-low interest rates and the largest US protests since 1968.

Trump may not be responsible for everything, but it happened under his watch. The US Council on Foreign Relations is so concerned, it published a report “The End of World Order and American Foreign Policy”.

Since World War II, the US has led a multilateral world order underwritten by unchallenged American military might and economic and financial power. China’s rise shifted the global balance of power. When US-China relations were normalised in 1979, the US economy was 26.3 per cent of world gross domestic product and 14.7 times larger than China’s (in US$ current market value terms).

But after 40 years of reforms and opening up, particularly World Trade Organisation membership, China has become the world’s second-largest economy. It edged past the US on a purchasing power parity basis by 2017 (roughly US$19 trillion each). In market exchange rate terms, however, the US is roughly one-third larger than China (US$21 trillion vs US$14 trillion in 2019 GDP).

04:12

Are Xi Jinping’s China and Donald Trump’s US destined for armed conflict?

Few would deny that America maintains a leading edge in science, technology, education, management skills and military power. America accounts for 40 per cent of the world’s stock and bond markets by market capitalisation. The US dollar remains unrivalled as the premier reserve currency and store of value. As the most powerful player, America can shape the balance of power in its favour. Leadership is America’s to lose.

But what few could imagine was how pandemic mismanagement has exposed the ills and weaknesses of US economy and society.

Official first-quarter GDP numbers are -6.8 per cent for China and -5 per cent for US, but in the second quarter, when lockdown orders were effectively in place, the US estimates range from -15 per cent to -25 per cent, with the Atlanta Federal Reserve estimating a decline of as much as -52.8 per cent. The risk is that, with protests across hundreds of cities, a second pandemic wave in the second half of the year could impede job recovery.

Who could have predicted that in a matter of months, the US would have over 40 million unemployed and over 100,000 dead. Recall that the country waged a 19-year war against terrorism after the September 11 terrorist attacks caused 2,996 deaths. The latest emotional trauma will not heal easily.

The killing of George Floyd has sparked protests, which also led to violence and rioting, with more than 9,300 arrested. “I can’t breathe” have become the watchwords of the protest.

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Asian-Americans in New York among those joining US protests after George Floyd’s death

But in a speech this week, Trump said the “nation has been gripped by professional anarchists, violent mobs, arsonists, looters, criminals, rioters” and others, and threatened: “If a city or a state refuses to take the actions that are necessary to defend the life and property of their residents, then I will deploy the United States military and quickly solve the problem for them.”

In effect, he would invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807, under which the president may, upon the request of the state legislature or governor, send in federal military troops.

Since the American civil war (1861-65), American troops are more used to fighting abroad. In 1871, president Ulysses Grant used the act to fight the Ku Klux Klan; in 1957, president Dwight Eisenhower invoked it to enforce desegregation of schools. Both presidents were former soldiers who understood fully the implications of using the military on its own people.

US President Trump walks with US Attorney General William Barr (left), US Secretary of Defence Mark Esper (centre), Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark A. Milley (right), and others from the White House to visit St. John’s Church on June 1, after the area was cleared of protesters against George Floyd’s death. Photo: AFP

Senior US military leaders have warned immediately of this threat. Angry and appalled former US defence secretary General James Mattis said: “Never did I dream that troops taking that same oath [to defend the US constitution] would be ordered under any circumstance to violate the constitutional rights of their fellow citizens – much less to provide a bizarre photo op for the elected commander-in-chief, with military leadership standing alongside.”

He added: “Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people ... he tries to divide us.”

If Trump sends in federal troops to quell citizens by force, he would cross the Rubicon – from which there may be no return. Instead of honouring his inaugural speech vow to end what he called “American carnage”, his words and actions are piling on the collateral damage.

From this side of the Pacific, we should reflect that America’s tragedy is also a disaster for world order. We need peace and stability to recover from the pandemic. Sound advice by the US Council on Foreign Relations to restore world order or, for that matter, from anyone else would have no effect before the November presidential elections.

Until then, anything is possible. Fasten your safety belts, everyone.

Andrew Sheng writes on global issues from an Asian perspective. The views expressed are solely those of the author

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Trump risks carnage if he unleashes troops on citizens

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