Galwan border clash a nightmare come true for India and China

China’s actions are counterproductive as they push India into the camp of those powers with shared apprehensions about China
This should drive home the urgency to amicably settle the border dispute and not leave it for future generations to resolve

Anit Mukherjee

Published: 1:00am, 24 Jun 2020

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Clashes like those along the India-China border last week have long been the stuff of nightmares. Since this is the year when nightmares come true, the simmering tensions along the Line of Actual Control separating India and China in Ladakh erupted into bloodshed for the first time in more than four decades.

We are still in the midst of the crisis and it’s not clear how it will play out. However, there is at least one certainty – there will be a paradigm shift in India about its relations with China.

Public surveys indicate Indians have rarely had a favourable opinion of China, but the brutal violence visited upon Indian troops and the resultant public anger may lead to a fundamental reassessment of India’s foreign policy. China may have gained tactical advantage on the ground, but it must ponder the long-term costs. All this is bound to have significant consequences for Asian security.

There are competing versions of the events in the Galwan valley on June 15. What is known is that 20 Indian Army soldiers died; the Chinese reportedly suffered casualties but have not divulged numbers. All this was without shots being fired as both armies adhered to previous agreements prohibiting the use of firearms along the Line of Actual Control.

05:02

Indians burn effigies of Chinese President Xi Jinping over deadly border clash

Instead, they faced each other with clubs adorned with barb wires, iron rods and stones – a throwback to a different generation of warfare. We may never know what exactly transpired that night, but it shattered the complacency some have over the border tensions since no bullet has been fired in anger since 1975.

If nothing else, this should drive home the urgency to amicably settle the border dispute and not leave it, as Chinese officials are wont to argue, for future generations to resolve.

There is greater confusion in India about China’s larger strategic intent. This crisis has arisen from planned, almost simultaneous Chinese manoeuvres earlier this year at three locations in eastern Ladakh: Hot Springs, Galwan valley and Pangong lake.

The debate in India initially focused around two questions. First, did the Chinese alter the status quo? As we now know, they did. Second, why did they do so? There is speculation about this, but “why” questions are difficult to answer.

For instance, historians are still divided about the underlying reason for China’s military action against India in the 1962 war. Despite this problem, during the current stand-off, there have been excruciating discussions in India, bordering on victim-blaming, on what brought it on.

China-India border dispute: what are New Delhi’s options to respond?

After the shocking details of the Galwan valley clash, however, the debate in India has now pivoted to how to respond. Previous crises were resolved by some form of mutual disengagement, but this time it may not be so simple.

There are reports the Chinese are building several structures in disputed territory and changing the facts on the ground. If true, the Indian government has two choices – accept these incursions as a fait accompli or take measures to restore the status quo. The former would be politically costly for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the latter portends an escalation that could spiral out of control. Neither is an attractive option.

02:13

India and China attempt to de-escalate border tension after deaths

The public mood in India has turned significantly against China. There are calls for a boycott of Chinese goods, and it appears Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE could be kept out of India’s growing telecoms market. The elements of this form of economic warfare remain to be seen, but a more important shift may occur in India’s foreign policy.

In the long run, China’s actions are counterproductive as they push India into the camp of those powers with shared apprehensions about China. This feeling would be strongest among members of the Indian military who are pushing for greater cooperation with Western powers.

Rising India-China border tensions dashing hopes of an ‘Asian century’

These border clashes are also being watched closely by other countries in Asia. Perhaps the foremost question is that if China can so brazenly challenge India, what does it mean for other countries in the region?

US-China decoupling is supposedly endangering the so-called Asian century, but this border crisis has added to the uncertainty and complicated an already difficult year. The nightmare is not over.

Anit Mukherjee is an assistant professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

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