Hong Kong’s economic future will be safer under a Joe Biden presidency
- Calm minds on both sides know China and the US need each other because they are more economically linked than militarily opposed, unlike the Cold War
- Hong Kong’s economic future remains in the hands of the superpowers, with a Biden presidency less likely to cause unwelcome fallout

British prime minister Harold Wilson said in 1964 that “a week is a long time in politics”. And in 1886, politician Joseph Chamberlain said: “In politics, there is no use in looking beyond the next fortnight.” In 2020, I shall try to look over the next five months to see how Hong Kong might fare with the next US president.
Two weeks ago, I would have said Trump would easily beat Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, but a fortnight is a long time in politics. Biden is an uninspiring, long-term politico who has shown few leadership skills. This election is Trump’s to lose.

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Are Xi Jinping’s China and Donald Trump’s US destined for armed conflict?
A scrapping Trump is a great campaigner, a victorious Trump vainglorious, but a losing Trump with his back to the wall is likely to intensify a stream of name-calling, backbiting, spiteful and divisive tweets which could turn voters against him.
It turns out White House meetings debating serious geopolitical issues, such as Iraq or Syria, are often derailed by Trump ranting about unrelated topics.
Bolton served Ronald Reagan and two Bushes as well as Trump, and he appears genuinely shocked at the lack of administration within the administration.
