A commuter wearing a protective mask sits on a bus displaying an electronic sign that reads “Stay Home. Save Lives” in downtown Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, on April 21. Photo: Bloomberg
Opinion
Opinion
by Yun Tang
Opinion
by Yun Tang
As a second wave looms, the US and China must escape the coronavirus ‘trap’ and work together to avert disaster
The Covid-19 trap, a twist on the Thucydides Trap, has limited policy options for the US and China. But this head-on collision is avoidable, and stable relations can cushion the world from upcoming shocks
The recent spike in Covid-19 cases in the US is a telling sign that the virus might be the most devastating in world history. The scope of its spread has far surpassed the 14th-century Black Death in Europe.
Unexpectedly, the pandemic has also formed a “trap” that pits the US against China, which alternatively became the epicentre of the calamity. An outbreak of the new coronavirus was first reported in China and, subsequently, the US is now the hardest-hit nation, with more than 2.7 million cases and 130,000 dead.
“This is worse than Pearl Harbour. This is worse than the World Trade Centre,” President Donald Trump said, when faulting China for spreading the virus to the US. He even threatened to “cut off the whole relationship” with China.
US-China relations had already been dented by trade wars, but Covid-19 triggered the mutation of bilateral ties from symbiotic rival-lovers to pathogenic rival-loathers.
02:06
Coronavirus pandemic creates ‘new Cold War’ as US-China relations sink to lowest point in decades
Coronavirus pandemic creates ‘new Cold War’ as US-China relations sink to lowest point in decades
Furthermore, the serendipity of 2020 has exacerbated the destructive power of the Covid-19 trap. With Trump facing an election battle in November, he will surely blame China for its impotency in tackling Covid-19.
Even heightened racial tensions have not diverted focus from China, with two US aircraft carrier strike groups operating in the Philippine Sea in sync with Chinese naval exercises in the South China Sea that began on Wednesday.
Thus, the US presidential campaign will be a China-bashing competition, with candidates using anti-Beijing vitriol to woo voters.
Interestingly, according to the 60-year zodiac cycle of the Chinese calendar, 2020 is an identical year to 1900, when China had to pay Boxer Indemnity to Western powers after the failed rebellion. As such, Beijing has rallied nationalist fervour to support its aggressive diplomacy in 2020, including passing a controversial security law in Hong Kong.
China has rejected the hypothesis of a Thucydides Trap, where a rising power is doomed to clash with the existing power. But the Covid-19 trap, a twist on the Thucydides Trap, has drastically limited policy options in both Washington and Beijing. However, this head-on collision is avoidable. One way to break the impasse might be through economic cooperation.
00:52
China warns about Covid-19 stigmatisation after Trump calls coronavirus ‘kung-flu’
China warns about Covid-19 stigmatisation after Trump calls coronavirus ‘kung-flu’
International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva has warned that a full global economic recovery is unlikely in 2021. Thus, as the world’s economic powerhouses, the US and China have a common interest in boosting the world economy; no single nation can eliminate either the coronavirus or the global recession. Such cooperation can also help foster mutual trust.
Economic interdependence is also inevitable. Since the health and economic crises broke out, Washington has urged American firms in China to leave while also considering delisting some Chinese stocks from US exchanges. The US seeks to sever economic ties with China, but a complete decoupling is unlikely.
It is hard to imagine, for example, the American entertainment industry leaving its Chinese audiences behind. Thus, US-China economic relations are unlikely to disintegrate into what Joseph Stalin described in 1951 as “two parallel world markets, also confronting one another” when discussing socialist and capitalist camps.
02:45
Global Covid-19 death toll hits 500,000 as coronavirus infections surge past 10 million
Global Covid-19 death toll hits 500,000 as coronavirus infections surge past 10 million
Undoubtedly, the coronavirus will exert an influence on reshaping the world order, but America is still irreplaceable as a global leader even though its reputation has been tarnished. Meanwhile, US-China relations are being safeguarded by many on both sides, showing there is no reason for the relationship to go into free fall.
Keeping bilateral communications alive is crucial to minimise harm. At the recent Hawaii talks between US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, the countries made no real breakthroughs in improving relations, but crossfire across a negotiating table is always better than on a battlefield.
The coronavirus’ spread shows no signs of abating, with alarming flare-ups in America of late. The European Union has now decided to open its borders to 15 countries including China, but not the US.
02:35
UN’s food relief agency in urgent need for funds to keep coronavirus aid flights going
UN’s food relief agency in urgent need for funds to keep coronavirus aid flights going
However, the worst may still be ahead of us, with a second wave predicted by medical experts, and the United Nations World Food Programme warning of famines of “biblical proportions”. Until an effective vaccines is publicly available, there will be no end to the pandemic.
In these dark hours, a stable US-China relationship can cushion the world from the political and economic shock waves.
Therefore, Washington and Beijing should halt the geopolitical jostling, jointly lead the global effort to defeat the virus, and resuscitate the world economy, avoiding falling into a mutually destructive trap. Ideally, they will not let their discord push a world already shrouded in tragedy into disaster.
