Three reasons China’s increasing assertiveness is a threat to Asia’s long-standing peace and stability
- Tensions in Asia are high, not only because of concerns about the impact of Covid-19. The China-India border dispute, Beijing’s militarisation in the South China Sea and the enactment of Hong Kong’s national security law all raise fears of conflict
Asia today is on the edge of a harrowing precipice, and not only because of ongoing concerns about the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The recent assertive turn in China’s approach to the world may be of even greater significance as it potentially signals an end to the region’s long post-Cold-War period of relative peace and stability.
A few years ago, similar predictions spurred by an uptick in conflict in the East and South China seas proved to be overblown as such territorial disputes did not lead to war. China’s naysayers appeared to be little more than a flock of proverbial chicken littles.
The number of reported deaths and casualties from the skirmish also far exceed those recorded in any of China’s outstanding border disputes in many years. It now appears Beijing and New Delhi are somewhat backing down from conflict.
However, the fact that fighting of any kind occurred in the Himalayas stands as a watershed moment in China’s relationship with India and the rest of Asia. It has broken a long track record of Chinese restraint when it comes to the use of force.
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The South China Sea dispute explained
Until now President Xi Jinping had largely refrained from using these new strengths as a springboard for more assertive policymaking. However, in the past few weeks, Chinese reserve has wavered.
Beijing has bluntly contested the claims both Vietnam and the Philippines have made in the South China Sea and strenuously objected to the recent US show of force there. Such moves have, so far, not led to a row comparable to the one that has rocked the Sino-Indian border region, but they have significantly escalated tensions in Southeast Asia.
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Hundreds arrested, thousands protest in Hong Kong during first day under new national security law
These trends make it clear that those expecting doom in Asia can no longer be dismissed. A breakdown of the status quo is in progress, but it is not yet complete. It would be if the current blustering between China and the United States escalates into a direct military engagement in the South China Sea.
As bad as things now are, they would be dramatically worse if the two superpowers come to something more than rhetorical blows.
Explained: The Diaoyu/Senkaku islands dispute
The sun will rise again tomorrow over Asia. It will do so over a terrain that is more fluid and worrisome than it has been in decades, though. If the sky there falls in the coming days, it should not be unexpected. The warning signs are everywhere.
Allen Carlson is an associate professor in Cornell University’s Government Department. He is also the Michael J. Zak Chair of history for US-China relations and director of the Levinson China and Asia-Pacific Studies programme at Cornell