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East China Sea
Opinion
Allen Carlson

Opinion | Three reasons China’s increasing assertiveness is a threat to Asia’s long-standing peace and stability

  • Tensions in Asia are high, not only because of concerns about the impact of Covid-19. The China-India border dispute, Beijing’s militarisation in the South China Sea and the enactment of Hong Kong’s national security law all raise fears of conflict

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Illustration: Craig Stephens

Asia today is on the edge of a harrowing precipice, and not only because of ongoing concerns about the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The recent assertive turn in China’s approach to the world may be of even greater significance as it potentially signals an end to the region’s long post-Cold-War period of relative peace and stability. 

A few years ago, similar predictions spurred by an uptick in conflict in the East and South China seas proved to be overblown as such territorial disputes did not lead to war. China’s naysayers appeared to be little more than a flock of proverbial chicken littles.

Concern is more warranted now, given three particularly troublesome developments. First, in recent weeks, China and India significantly ramped up their long-standing border conflict. The reported fighting between the two sides stands in stark contrast to the confidence-building measures they signed in the 1990s that established the framework for a robust period of detente between the two Asian giants.
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The number of reported deaths and casualties from the skirmish also far exceed those recorded in any of China’s outstanding border disputes in many years. It now appears Beijing and New Delhi are somewhat backing down from conflict.

However, the fact that fighting of any kind occurred in the Himalayas stands as a watershed moment in China’s relationship with India and the rest of Asia. It has broken a long track record of Chinese restraint when it comes to the use of force.

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Second, Beijing is increasingly throwing its weight around in the South China Sea. It is doing so from a significantly stronger position than before. In recent years, Beijing’s naval force projection capabilities have been upgraded and expanded. In addition, its island-building strategy has created a new reality – a durable Chinese physical presence throughout these contested waters.
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