My Take | Who does China want as next US president?
- Instead of asking whether it wants four more years of Donald Trump, a more relevant question is whether it is in Beijing’s interest to have a more chaotic or stable world
But since we will never know what Beijing’s preference really is and whether it will change its mind from now until November, maybe it’s more useful to ask how Beijing sees the world ahead with either Trump or Biden as president; or another viable Republican candidate to replace Trump should he be dumped by his own party.
No doubt in the short term, there are tactical advantages in having an erratic and incompetent US president at the helm. Beijing can make many mistakes on the world stage but it can be sure it will be matched or outmatched by America’s tweeter-in-chief.
These days, both Beijing and Washington seem to be competing to see who can alienate more countries quicker. Europeans and Asians may tilt towards one side or the other, but given America’s unreliability and China’s mistrust, they will likely hedge their bets.
The question that China wants to ask is: does it want a more chaotic or stable world? Having four more years of Trump will almost guarantee the former. However, having a competent US president may risk having him lead another cohesive Western or even Eastern alliance to contain China more effectively than those anti-China hawks under Trump.
On the other hand, a wise and experienced United States president may recognise China is not the Soviet Union or, God forbid, Nazi Germany; and that it is a fully systematically important country in the global economy.