Pan-democrats face uphill fight despite Hong Kong primary turnout
- Stakes may have been raised with more than 610,000 people making their choice ahead of September’s elections, but considerable challenges lie ahead for the opposition camp as it seeks a Legislative Council majority
An unofficial ballot confined to the opposition camp is arguably not much of an election. But it says a lot about the public mood when hundreds of thousands brave stern warnings and hot weather to vote in a poll challenged by the authorities.
Coming after a series of political controversies, the latest being Beijing’s imposition of a national security law on Hong Kong, the primary poll by pan-democrats over the weekend has raised the stakes even higher.
In a vote held to screen out less popular candidates for the Legislative Council elections in September, the turnout of over 610,000, nearly three times more than the number expected, was surprisingly strong and partly down to government warnings that such a vote might breach national security and electoral laws.
A police raid on the eve of the poll in relation to a suspected personal data leak may have also increased the turnout.
In a wider context, there are still unaddressed grievances arising from last year’s extradition bill saga and worries over the national security law. With peaceful mass protests effectively banned due to Covid-19 restrictions and fears other freedoms may be curbed, many are seizing every opportunity to make themselves heard.
The turnout was described by organiser Benny Tai Yiu-ting as the “ultimate peaceful, rational and non-violent” political statement by the people, and it warrants deep reflection by Beijing and the local government.
The aim of the opposition is to win more than half of Legco’s 70 seats, the so-called 35-plus, and this appeals to those dissatisfied with the current balance of power. However, the poll has touched a raw nerve in Beijing and prompted accusations that it was manipulated, a claim denied by the opposition.
Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor has warned that any vote seeking to seize control and resist every government initiative might amount to subversion, and the central government’s liaison office in the city has described the ballot as unlawful and called for an investigation and legal action.
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Buoyed by the high turnout, the camp believes winning more than 45 seats may be possible with voters having changed their “political colours” in the wake of social unrest and the national security law controversy. Adding to concerns is the emergence of more localists in favour of confrontation.
Whether the primary spells trouble for the pro-Beijing camp remains to be seen, but the poll should enable it to gauge the strength of the opposition and adjust strategies.
The real battle is yet to come. A Legco majority remains a challenge for pan-democrats under the proportional representation electoral system with trade-based functional constituencies.
A seismic shift in the political landscape would have a far-reaching impact on governance and Hong Kong-Beijing relations.
