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China-India border dispute
Opinion
Ameya Pratap Singh

Opinion | China-India relations: Ladakh stand-off need not be a prelude to war

  • If these nuclear states and rivals want to manage, stabilise and eventually transcend the security dilemma, they must incrementally build trust
  • Greater appreciation of the fears of one’s adversary paves the way for deeper dialogue and a trusting relationship, though this needs a delicate balancing act

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Why you can trust SCMP
Illustration: Stephen Case

In light of Sino-Indian relations reaching a nadir, the common refrain among policy analysts is that India can ill afford to trust China any longer. John Mearsheimer, a professor of political science and international relations at the University of Chicago, restated during a recent interview with India Today his long-standing thesis that world politics is “tragically” bereft of trust and security can only be realised through self-help.

Such realism might seem appealing after the violent clashes on June 15 as they occurred while the disengagement plan agreed on at the major-general level on June 6 was being enacted. However, one must ask: if India or China abandons the possibility of peaceful coexistence or trust-building and adheres to Mearsheimer’s prophecy, do they not risk bringing closer the very “tragedy” they want to avoid?

Even as rivals, if India and China are to lead the resurgence of Asia, they must avoid a Pyrrhic war and learn how to trust each other. One can intuitively reasoned that trust is often in short supply among rivals – particularly in times of conflict – but the historical record is surprising.

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In 1950, faced with a refugee crisis on the Bengal border and the immediate prospect of state failure, India’s then-prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru and his Pakistani counterpart Liaquat Ali Khan avoided war and established a trusting relationship on the subject of religious minorities. In this instance, trust was possible despite an ongoing struggle over Kashmir, the trauma of Partition and active warmongering by prominent sections of the domestic population and media on both sides.

Other instances of trust between rivals include, the 1999 Lahore Declaration between Atal Behari Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif, the end of the Cold War and rapprochement between Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan, and the 1995 Oslo Accords between Israel and Palestine.

02:13

India and China attempt to de-escalate border tension after deaths

India and China attempt to de-escalate border tension after deaths
While military deterrence and offensive capabilities are vital for national security, the recent clashes on the Sino-Indian border show they cannot guarantee war avoidance. The risk of inadvertence, escalation and pre-emption persists with increased militarisation. If rivals want to manage, stabilise and eventually transcend the security dilemma, they must incrementally build trust.
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