Opinion | Why China must beware a less confident US, politically divided and pessimistic about its future

What the West views as China’s assertiveness is a response to the challenges it perceives to its sovereignty. Meanwhile, the US has rarely been at peace in its history

While American overconfidence after the Cold War led to the deadly war in Afghanistan, the US’ lack of assurance is fuelling its campaign to suppress China

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Published: 8:00am, 27 Jul 2020Updated: 9:19am, 27 Jul 2020

Has China’s foreign policy restraint ended? This is the question raised by Kurt M. Campbell and Mira Rapp-Hooper in their essay “China is done biding its time” in Foreign Affairs. They argue that since the pandemic first engulfed the world, China’s government has engaged in an unprecedented diplomatic offensive, taking advantage of the ensuing chaos and the global power vacuum left by a no-show US administration.

Likewise, in a recent opinion piece in the Financial Times, Michele Flournoy, a former US undersecretary of defence for policy, concludes that China’s border clash with India is another sign of the county’s growing assertiveness.

Such views, preponderant in Western media, need serious examination. China’s “assertiveness”, be it in the South China Sea or the Galwan Valley, is a response to the challenges it perceives to its sovereignty. And China doesn’t need to make use of the “chance” provided by the pandemic since China is stronger than these countries militarily.

In Hong Kong, where the “one country, two system” framework applies, “one country” comes first, and “two systems” doesn’t mean the central government should tolerate the unrest that has plagued the city in recent years. The national security law is an “enough is enough” response.

While it is debatable whether the US has declined in power, most people agree at least that the US has declined relative to other nations, such as the new emerging economies. But Donald Trump is the biggest proponent of the “decline” narrative. His sketch of “American carnage” and then championing of “America first” helped him win the presidential election in 2016.

Delegates attend the Republican National Convention on July 20, 2016, in Cleveland, Ohio, where then Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump received the number of votes needed to secure the party’s nomination. Photo: AFP

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