Opinion

Hong Kong, facing an ageing society and brain drain, must act now to retain talent

Hong Kong low fertility rate, declining inward migration and increasing outflow, and ageing society do not bode well for the city’s future. The government must make nurturing and attracting talent a priority

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People cross a street in Hong Kong’s business district Central in May 2017. Hong Kong’s low fertility rate and ageing society is a cause for concern. Photo: Fung Chang

Paul Yip is the founding director of the Centre for Suicide Research and Prevention at the University of Hong Kong, and a professor at the university's Department of Social Work and Social Administration.

Published: 5:45am, 19 Aug 2020Updated: 5:45am, 19 Aug 2020

The latest population figures released by the Census and Statistics Department should serve as a wake-up call for the Hong Kong’s administration.

The provisional estimate of the Hong Kong population was 7,509,200 in mid-2020, which is only 1,800 more than the estimate in mid-2019. Population increase comprises three components: number of deaths, number of births and the net movement of Hong Kong residents (inflow less outflow).

The number of births is 49,500, with an estimated total fertility rate of 1.05, which is well below the replacement level of 2.1, the number of children each woman needs to give birth to for a population to replace itself. The number of deaths was 48,900, and is expected to increase further in a rapidly ageing society. The natural increase of the population (birth less death) was 600.

It is clear that the number of deaths will outnumber births next year or in the very near future if the fertility rate remains so low. Hong Kong will enter a depopulation stage without enough migration, akin to what Japan has been experiencing since 2000.

Mothers attend to their babies at an event at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre in Wan Chai on February 22. Photo: Dickson Lee

Due to the social unrest and the Covid-19 pandemic, only 22,100 one-way permit holders entered Hong Kong so far this year compared with 44,400 in the same period last year, a 50.2 per cent drop. Furthermore, 20,900 people left Hong Kong.