Masood AhmedandMauricio Cárdenas

Middle-income countries’ lonely war on the coronavirus cannot be ignored

Already weakened by social unrest over slowing economic growth and crippling inequalities, these countries are now struggling to contain a pandemic with a fraction of the resources that rich nations have, and without the aid extended to low-income countries

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Cemetery workers in Lima, Peru, carry the coffin of a person who died from Covid-19 complications, according to the family, to a burial site on the outskirts of the city on August 26. Peru is among the top 10 countries with the most confirmed cases, and has had more than 28,000 confirmed deaths. Photo: AP

Masood AhmedandMauricio Cárdenas

Published: 8:45pm, 2 Sep 2020Updated: 10:25pm, 2 Sep 2020

The coronavirus pandemic has had a devastating impact on middle-income countries. With the exception of the United States, the 10 countries with the highest number of Covid-19 cases to date are all middle-income countries. And the same is true for new daily cases and Covid-19 deaths per million population.

The economic projections for middle-income countries are equally dismal. Latin America’s experience is illustrative: the region accounts for just 8.4 per cent of the global population, but 30 per cent of total Covid-19 fatalities to date. The International Monetary Fund estimates that gross domestic product in Latin America and the Caribbean will contract by 9.4 per cent this year.

These setbacks come at a time when waves of social unrest are spreading across middle-income countries. With a few exceptions such as Peru or Ghana, the main drivers of discontent have been lacklustre growth, lack of upward mobility, and demands for greater political representation and participation.

To make matters worse, before the Covid-19 crisis, the end of the long commodity supercycle that had boosted middle-income countries’ exports was threatening to reverse rising living standards. Young people feared they would end up where their parents had started a generation ago.

Riot police in Chile deploy a water cannon to break up a protest against the government on August 28. Waves of social unrest have hit middle-income countries since last year. Even in better-performing economies, like Chile, many feel that their expectations and aspirations have not been met. Photo: Reuters

When the pandemic erupted, middle-income country governments responded with lockdowns and economic stimulus. But the effectiveness of these measures has been limited by high urban population densities, sizeable informal economies that make human contact hard to avoid, and financial constraints that are much more binding than in the rich world.