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Andrew Sheng

Opinion | How Asia can ensure peace and prosperity for another 60 years, amid growing protectionism, decoupling and climate change

  • Over the past 60 years, Asia’s growing share of the world economy has come at the expense of the West
  • With India and Asean about to reap the same demographic dividend as China, how Asia manages Western insecurities and societal rifts will be key

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Shopkeepers wait for customers in a waterlogged shopping centre after a heavy downpour in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on July 21. Climate-change issues are rising on Asia’s economic and social agenda. Photo: AFP

On September 16, Malaysia celebrates its 57th national day, having celebrated on August 31 the 63rd anniversary of independence from Britain in 1957. What does independence mean to former colonies? It means a nation is free to choose its future, independent from imperial influence.

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Lest we forget, colonisation in Asia arrived in the 16th century with Portuguese, Dutch and British pirateers who came, saw and conquered. They did this in the name of their king and Christianity, but it was mostly for themselves. No statistic better illustrates this than the stark fact that India before colonisation in 1700 accounted for 24.4 per cent of the world economy but only 4.2 per cent in 1950 after independence in 1947.

Of course, the British left behind the English language, the rule of law and a durable administrative structure, still practised in many former colonies. We should also be grateful that decolonisation was encouraged by the post-war American administration, which did not want any challenges to its dominant status, British cousins or not.

What matters is what the newly independent countries achieved with their sovereignty. Singapore is the exemplar that pulled itself into advanced-income status by sheer grit and determination, having almost no natural resources. Myanmar, on the other hand, was richly endowed with natural resources and had one of the best educated elites at independence in 1948. Ruled mostly by the military junta, its growth has been stunted relative to neighbours.
The Asian Development Bank has just published an excellent book, Asia’s Journey to Prosperity, commemorating more than 50 years of its establishment in 1966. It tracks Asia’s transformation into the urban and technologically driven region that now accounts for roughly half of global growth.

07:15

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How hi-tech solutions are being used across Asia to cope with the coronavirus pandemic

Seen over a 60-year cycle, Asia’s transformation has been world shattering. In 1960, developing Asia (excluding Japan) accounted for only 4.1 per cent of world gross domestic product, measured in constant 2010 US dollar terms. That year, the European Union accounted for 36.2 per cent and the United States, 30.6 per cent. Japan was already a developed country with 7 per cent of world GDP.

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