How China can turn its carbon-neutral pledge into reality – and benefit its economy

China must not only embed its bold commitment into its five-year plan, but also more aggressively green its belt and road investments
Getting other nations on board with a carbon-neutral plan could boost China’s international revenue in the form of clean energy exports

Sophie Zinser

Published: 2:00am, 4 Oct 2020

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Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambitious promise to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, announced on September 22, may have global implications, although it contradicts the nation’s reliance on fossil fuel investments and the coal powering its domestic industry.

Despite the US State Department’s 1,800-word “fact sheet” released on September 25, pointing out China’s past environmental violations, Xi’s long-term carbon-neutral goal is a strong example of global leadership.

Documents released on September 27 from Tsinghua University’s Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy shows China’s top minds have long been developing a clear plan to 2060.

But the indicators of China’s real steps forward lie in its mixed commitments to both continuing coal consumption domestically and maintaining its position as the world’s leader in clean energy technology.

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China vows carbon neutrality by 2060 during one-day UN biodiversity summit

For the Tsinghua plan to succeed, China would have to increase its share of non-fossil-fuel energy to 20 per cent by 2025, five years earlier than the National Development and Reform Commission thought was possible in 2018.

Most critically, the country would have to also entirely eliminate coal use domestically by 2050. This goal in particular seems a bit lofty compared to realities on the ground.

China’s policy on coal tends to oscillate between upgrading coal power to make plants more efficient while periodically closing other plants to improve air quality.

These periodic shifts will not be sufficient to eliminate coal use in the most populous country in the world. Further, Covid-19-induced shortages are already creeping up on the 2060 goal, ramping up domestic coal prices in China.

An aerial photo shows workers cleaning and transporting coal to the Shijiu Port Area of Rizhao Port in east China’s Shandong Province on October 23, 2019. As part of a project aiming at improving the environment of its coastline, the coal yard and work zone will be relocated away from urban areas. Photo: Xinhua

With coal already expensive and China refusing to set an annual target for economic growth this year, it seems more critical for the domestic economy to continue – rather than start curbing – coal consumption, if only to stay afloat financially through the early 2020s.

Despite obvious challenges ahead, Xi’s announcement is bringing to the geopolitical stage something rarely seen in 2020: hope. As many international decision-making forums have stalled due to Covid-19, Xi’s surprise announcement has been met with consensus on carbon-neutrality from many of the globe’s largest economies, including the European Union, Japan and California.

Broad-based international support for the 2060 promise will only bring more attention to the geopolitical importance of China in stoking global advocacy for combating climate change.

China’s belt and road: an eco-disaster?

While it may harm coal consumption domestically, getting other nations on board with a carbon-neutral 2060 could offer a crucial boost to China’s international revenue. The country exports billions in clean energy tech abroad, mostly to Middle Eastern nations staring down the barrel of decreasing oil supply.

China often touts the “green” addendum to its Belt and Road Initiative as its global environmental policy’s gold star. But the “green” in the initiative translates to China boosting the globally dominant position of its solar panel and wind turbine production industries.

Most belt and road investments are in fact not “green” in that they still fund fossil fuels, particularly the lucrative coal industry. While sending green tech abroad could benefit China’s economy, the Belt and Road Initiative’s carbon footprint would have to be significantly reduced for changes in China’s domestic coal consumption to have global emissions impact.

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China lights up first 100MW solar power plant as part of a green-energy push

Should Xi’s pledge for carbon neutrality meet its promise, China would not only take the political lead in tackling global warming, but would define global demographic shifts across dozens of belt and road countries for decades to come.

While seasonal and rural-to-urban migration has spiked in recent years, climate migration in particular is rapidly pushing scores of people away from areas with low crop productivity, high water availability, and rising sea levels.

As many as 143 million across sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America are predicted to migrate due to climate change by 2050. For a nation that produces 30 per cent of the world’s carbon emissions, China meeting its 2060 goal would also drastically alter the future of migration both inside China and abroad.

If China wants to win the world’s favour as a global power, it should embed its carbon-neutral 2060 commitment into its new five-year plan this October.

If a win for former US vice-president Joe Biden shakes up the US White House in November, China’s commitment to combating climate change may have another powerful economy on its side.

If done in collaboration with other global actors while balancing domestic economic pressures, China’s leadership is poised to play a critical part in stalling or even halting the next looming global crisis.

Sophie Zinser is a researcher and an incoming Schwarzman Academy Fellow at Chatham House in London

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