What US allies in Asia need from the next American president

Asian nations, for whom the Chinese threat is closer to home, would welcome a return to the US’ long-standing foreign policy traditions and global leadership instead of the transactional approach favoured by Trump

Mohamed Zeeshan

Published: 5:30am, 6 Oct 2020

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In a provocative essay for Foreign Policy recently, James Crabtree wrote that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a credibility problem in Asia. “Officials in Tokyo, Taipei, New Delhi, Singapore, and other capitals have grown relatively comfortable with Trump and his tough approach on China,” he said. By contrast, Crabtree pointed out, Biden is seen to represent a softer and more conciliatory approach towards China.

Crabtree is right; US President Donald Trump’s muscular approach to China and his economic measures – sanctions, trade tariffs and attempted app bans – have won him a few friends, from India to Japan. Trump’s recent effort to ban the Chinese social media app Tiktok was seen in New Delhi as vindication of India’s own previous ban of that app. Similarly, his tough stance on Beijing’s handling of Covid-19 has resonated across Asia.

Yet, while Trump has taken economic measures against China, the US’ allies in Asia need much more. In recent times, China has become increasingly aggressive towards its neighbours, and the efforts by the US and others to challenge China economically have not worked as a deterrent.

India’s sweeping ban on Chinese apps did not help defuse a border conflict in the Himalayas, and the country is now staring down the prospect of war if it wishes to recover the 1,000 square kilometres that the Indian media reports it has lost to China along the Line of Actual Control. Last month, Philippine Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jnr spoke of the possibility of Chinese attacks on his country’s naval vessels amid rising tensions in the South China Sea.

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China’s neighbours may need military support from the US, but Trump has proven unreliable on security commitments, even towards countries with whom the US has mutual defence treaties.

In East Asia, for instance, Trump has often complained about what he sees as freeriding by Japan and South Korea on the US military presence there. Trump has told Japan on more than one occasion that it should pay more to support US forces – perhaps even four times the almost US$2 billion it is now paying each year.

Worse, Trump has also tended to swing from rage to rapprochement towards rivals, often leaving US allies in the lurch. On a visit to Japan last year, Trump alarmed his hosts by playing down their concerns over North Korea’s missile tests. He later said he enjoys a “very good personal relationship” with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Trump has not been immune to wild swings on China, either. He initially was full of praise for China’s handling of Covid-19, before changing tack. He has also commended Chinese President Xi Jinping several times, calling him “a great leader who very much has the respect of his people” even as protests gripped Hong Kong.

All of this may have helped convince former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe to rethink Japan’s pacifist defence policies to reduce his country’s dependence on Washington.

American military personnel take photos of US President Donald Trump and US First Lady Melania Trump aboard a helicopter carrier at the US naval base in Yokosuka, Kanagawa prefecture, Japan, on May 28, 2019. Photo: Bloomberg

Trump’s shake-up of US foreign policy at the multilateral level has been even more disastrous for allies dealing with Chinese aggression. Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership frustrated US allies in the Asia-Pacific who had seen the trade bloc as a way to balance against Chinese economic domination. Trump continues to pursue difficult stances on trade and immigration with allies in the region, making them even more dependent on China for trade.

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Meanwhile, at the United Nations, Trump’s withdrawal from leadership has ceded space to Beijing. The US remains the UN’s largest source of funds despite Trump’s efforts, largely owing to action by the US Congress to maintain the status quo.

But the president has managed to cut US contributions to various agencies: in 2017, the Trump administration suspended all funding to the UN Population Fund; in 2018, the UN Programme on HIV/Aids and the World Health Organization lost 30 per cent and 20 per cent of their US funding respectively. This year, Trump began the process of withdrawing from the WHO – ironically over concerns about Chinese influence.

In contrast, China is now the second-largest contributor to the UN budget, accounting for 12 per cent of its funding as opposed to just 1 per cent two decades ago. It is also now the only country in UN history to be among both the top financiers and the largest troop contributors for UN peacekeeping.

Peacekeeping troops from China deployed by the United Nations Mission in South Sudan patrol outside the premises of the UN Protection of Civilians site in Juba, South Sudan, on October 4, 2016. Photo: AFP

Trump’s unreliability as an ally stems from his abandonment of long-standing US foreign policy traditions and his embrace instead of a more transactional approach. Rui Zhong, a programme associate at the Wilson Centre, pointed out that Trump’s toughness on China has changed whenever he sees tantalising prospects of trade deals and potential benefits to businesses.

This approach hurts US allies in Asia, for whom the Chinese threat is more real, constant and closer to home than it is to Washington.

Asian allies need an American president who will restore confidence in Washington’s commitment to its alliances, and who values multilateral diplomacy and the US’ role in international organisations, rather than one who pursues knee-jerk reactions that clear space for greater Chinese influence.

Biden may commit US troops in support of allies in Asia, but he is more likely to do all of the above. He has already committed to reversing Trump’s withdrawal from the WHO and the Paris climate deal, for instance. Those actions are worth much more to American allies than tough talk on China.

Mohamed Zeeshan is editor-in-chief of Freedom Gazette and a writer for The Diplomat. He has previously worked for the United Nations and his first book, on Indian foreign policy, will be out soon

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