Coronavirus recovery: Southeast Asia faces long, hard road back from pandemic
- Containing the pandemic and rekindling the economy are the most pressing priorities as Covid-19 continues to roil countries in the region
- There are also opportunities to benefit from supply chains moving away from China and learn from success stories like Singapore and Vietnam
Southeast Asia’s fate is not entirely in its own hands, either. The pace and depth of the region’s recovery will depend on the global path of the pandemic, the success of vaccine development and the rebound of global demand for the goods and services Southeast Asia produces.
For all this challenge, though, it is clear Southeast Asia will be neither fatalistic nor passive in responding to the crisis in the region. Southeast Asian countries are planning for recovery and looking for opportunity in adversity, even as they fight the pandemic. Their diversity means recovery strategies will necessarily be tailed to individual country circumstances, but five factors are emerging as high priorities.
02:05
Indonesia surpasses Philippines for Southeast Asia’s largest Covid-19 case numbers and death toll
Some Southeast Asian countries will need sustained international help to develop and deploy these capabilities. Without this, some parts of the region could find themselves stuck in the worst of all worlds, able neither to fully contain the pandemic nor to fully open their economies.
Vaccines will only be a partial remedy in the short to medium term. Delivering an efficient national vaccine roll-out, with early priority for health workers and high-risk groups such as the elderly, will be a daunting task for the larger and poorer Southeast Asian countries.
They also worry about vaccine nationalism and want more international support. Some are looking to China and Russia to help with as-yet unproven vaccines. An alternative way for partner countries to support the region is through contributions to the Covax Advance Market Commitment facility that will secure effective vaccines for developing countries.
01:43
Hong Kong, Singapore announce plans for quarantine-free travel bubble
Investment in sectors such as the digital economy, for example, will bring longer-term benefits. The absence of affordable, high-speed broadband creates a significant digital divide in much of the region, and more barriers to e-commerce can be removed.
Over time, robotics and other advanced manufacturing technology will threaten labour-intensive manufacturing in countries such as Cambodia, Myanmar and Vietnam. The textile and footwear industries are potential targets.
Asean cities must embrace a green post-Covid-19 recovery
Emergency fiscal support packages in Southeast Asia have been essential tools to mitigate economic damage. However, they can’t be maintained indefinitely without raising debt and financial stability concerns. The high-wire act here is to carefully and gradually unwind some emergency measures in favour of investment in broad-based social security assistance programmes for the most vulnerable.
Getting many workers back into jobs will be also be a mammoth undertaking. Partner countries can help by devoting additional support for efforts by Southeast Asian countries to tackle unemployment, encourage businesses to hire workers and improve skills. The region’s human capital will be more important than ever to long-term economic success.
The pandemic has showed that effective and accountable institutions, civilian leadership, clear communication with populations and polices informed by evidence and science can make a big difference. These qualities, along with access to justice for citizens, a healthy civil society and reduced corruption, do not just help fight the pandemic – they will also build a more prosperous and stable region over the long term.
Richard Maude is a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute and coordinator of a new project on Southeast Asia and Covid-19, developed with support from the Australia-Asean Council