My Take | China invade Taiwan? You must be joking
- While Washington keeps repeating the same historic mistakes in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, Beijing has surely learned from the Americans
Suddenly, some very important people in the West are warning mainland China may invade Taiwan. It reminds me of other Western VIPs who thought the People’s Liberation Army would roll in the tanks at the height of violent unrest in Hong Kong last year.
Back then, sensible local businesspeople and informed expatriate commentators had argued otherwise. Doing so would mean the PLA had to take over the city, and Beijing would have to take ownership of all of the city’s domestic problems.
Similarly, despite Beijing’s sabre rattling, they won’t invade Taiwan without provocation. In any case, should it happen, it wouldn’t be an “invasion” but a civil war, something that strikes terror in the heart of every Chinese.
Influential Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman warned, though, that “a distracted US is dangerous for Taiwan”.
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“The US is now consumed by the most divisive presidential election campaign in living memory,” he wrote. “Under these circumstances, the Chinese government may doubt continuing American commitment to Taiwan.