My Take | Mike Pompeo for US president in 2024?
- Forget Joe Biden or Donald Trump, a true nightmare scenario for Beijing is for the current secretary of state to take over the White House in four years
Chinese Communist leaders supposedly think in the long term. If so, they must be looking beyond the next US presidency. Whether it will be Joe Biden or Donald Trump, they more or less know what to expect. Certainly, there will not be much let-up in Washington’s anti-China stance.
But what will be truly scary for Beijing, four years from now, is to see Mike Pompeo in the White House.
A Biden win is likely to be Obama 2.0. He may be more consistent in his approach to negotiations with Beijing, but it’s unlikely he will go soft over fundamental conflicts in arms, technology and trade.
As he re-engages with America’s friends, he may potentially create an awesome global alliance, economically and militarily, that has been undermined by Trump’s “America First” foreign policy. He may, for example, resume American leadership in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Barack Obama’s signature trade achievement that was abandoned by Trump.
A second term for Trump may see a worsening of trade disputes, technology rivalry and diplomatic spats. Accidental confrontations in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait may also be possible, as both countries step up sabre rattling in the region. But then, it may not, as the man is highly erratic and may decide to lower tensions for a time.