Trump vs Biden: how the US election result could influence Brexit talks

As trade negotiations between the European Union and Britain come to a head this month, events more than 5,500km away in Washington may be as important as those in Brussels and London. In deciding whether to risk a no-deal Brexit outcome or drive harder for a breakthrough agreement, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is anxiously awaiting this week’s US presidential election result.

If US President Donald Trump wins re-election against the odds, Johnson may well interpret that as vindication that, with Brexit at least, he is on the right side of history. Trump, who came to power in 2016, the same year as the Brexit referendum, has been perhaps the most outspoken world leader in favour of Britain’s departure from the EU.

If the mercurial president wins a second term, Johnson is more likely to feel emboldened to plump for no deal with the EU, not least as a US-UK trade agreement may become an early priority of a re-elected Trump administration.

Such an agreement would be a significant victory for both Johnson and Trump. For the British prime minister, it would give some credence to his aspirations for a new “global Britain” in a context where the nation’s relationship with the world’s other superpower, China, has eroded badly since the pandemic began. A trade deal would also be a boon for Trump, who is criticised in many quarters for being an anti-globalisation, protectionist president.