Biden will look to reset US-China relations, but he won’t back off or revert to the pre-Trump status quo
- While US policy towards China will be less confrontational and the trade war may be dialled down, Biden will keep up the pressure on scrutiny of Chinese investments in the US, market access for American firms in China, human rights and Hong Kong
Joe Biden’s election as president of the United States portends major changes in American foreign policy. Some directions are already clear.
Look for that to change. A Biden administration will be less unilateral, more collaborative, and will invest more in global relationships. Look for the US to rejoin the Paris Agreement and the WHO, and to remove the Trump administration’s block on appellate appointments at the WTO.
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But, as an alternative to raising trade barriers, more will be invested in science as a key to competitiveness. Restrictions on skilled immigration will be loosened. Human rights, rarely spoken of in the last four years, will return to the agenda and shared democratic values will grow in importance as key global relationships are strengthened.
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Even if political relations improve, these issues aren’t going away. While partisan conflict is the norm in Washington, there is a remarkable degree of agreement among both parties that a harder line with China on trade and market access was overdue.
Biden’s China policy will be tough, not reckless
The upshot is that a Biden administration can’t look soft on China and won’t walk away from the table that Trump has set. Concern about the national security implications of Chinese investment in US technology firms will continue, as will scrutiny of Chinese activity on US campuses.
His approach will be less unilateral and more multilateral – using international institutions more than Trump and building agreement with like-minded partners on joint strategies to address shared issues with China. But he will not back off.
However, China should not expect US-China relations to revert to their status before Trump took office. It should also avoid challenging the new administration’s resolve on points of friction, or mistake what has been a divisive election process for weakness or lack of will.
The change of administrations offers the opportunity for a reset that can put the US-China relationship on a new footing. That would help both economies and reassure global partners damaged by the trade war. An early outreach by China’s leaders to the Biden administration, opening the door to a new dialogue, would be an important step towards a more stable and productive relationship.
Sean Randolph is senior director at the Bay Area Council Economic Institute, a business-supported public policy organisation in San Francisco