Opinion | Why we should brace for more volatility, violence and conflict in the US in the coming months

Name: US President-elect Joe Biden’s possible Indian relatives spark genealogical frenzy
Uploaded: 2020-11-20T17:30:10.000Z
Duration: 2 min 8 s
Description: US President-elect Joe Biden’s possible Indian relatives spark genealogical frenzy

Predicting the future is difficult, especially in an age of polarisation. But one things seems certain: the Trump supporters that Hillary Clinton once called ‘deplorables’ are still solidly behind him, and the issues that drive them won’t go away

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A supporter of US President Donald Trump clashes with a protester during an anti-Trump rally in the aftermath of the 2020 US presidential election, at Black Lives Matter Plaza in Washington on November 13. Photo: Reuters

Andrew Sheng

Published: 1:30am, 21 Nov 2020Updated: 2:17am, 21 Nov 2020

The US elections are nearly over, maybe. Weeks after election day, America remains divided down the middle and we still do not know when, or if, the loser will come out of his playpen and concede defeat.

What we know for sure is that the pollsters are wrong again. They predicted a landslide swing to the Democrats but it turned out to be a very tight race.

Polling is a risky business if voters do not tell the truth, or simply avoid polls. After failing spectacularly in 2016 and badly in 2020, most pollsters have to go back to their drawing boards and figure out where they went wrong.

Basically, people are mentally geared for cautious increments, not seismic waves. After four years of shambolic chaos under Donald Trump, when policy directions changed with a tweet, many prayed for more predictability coming out of the White House.

But president-elect Joe Biden has massive messes to clean up: a raging pandemic and a stalled economy on top of very scary foreign policy options. The International Health Metrics and Evaluation model estimates that there could be 360,000 Covid-19 deaths in the US by the time Trump leaves office on January 20.

02:08

US President-elect Joe Biden’s possible Indian relatives spark genealogical frenzy

How could 2021 turn out? Most economic forecasts predict a rebound next year, after a dip this year. This is known as the “hockey stick” or J-curve. The market rallies on good news of effective vaccines. Experts cheer for a recovery next year, because no one likes to hear it’s going to be worse.

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