Opinion | Lessons of the Cold War – and the hot one in ancient Greece – are not lost on China and the US

While comparisons with the past may offer useful analysis of the major-power struggle of today, it’s foolish to try to predict what geopolitics will look like in the future

War is not inevitable – Washington and Beijing are going through a low point in their relations, but the incoming Biden administration is likely to bring positive change

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China and the US may not become the best of friends, but they also need not be the bitterest of enemies. Photo: Reuters

Published: 6:45am, 18 Dec 2020Updated: 7:12am, 18 Dec 2020

This week, novelist John le Carre passed away at the age of 89. He was known to readers around the world for his political espionage thrillers, many of which became terrific movies: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and The Man Who Came in from the Cold. Le Carre, who was himself a spy for Britain, was cynical about the profession, and even more so about the Cold War that kept the spy business going.

Le Carre’s novels are often described as tragic. His stories laid bare the futility of the 40-plus years of struggle for dominance between the US and the Soviet Union. The Cold War divided the globe, ripped apart lives and families on both sides, and consumed an enormous amount of intellectual and economic resources.

How different a world we might have had if the US and the Soviet Union had put these resources to better and more productive use, for the good of all.

Thinking of Le Carre’s novels, my thoughts naturally turn to what many pundits are calling “a new cold war”. The back-and-forth antagonism between the US and China has been escalating, and some commentators even think relations between the countries are at their lowest point in the past 50 years.

John le Carre at his home in London in 2008. Le Carre’s novels laid bare the futility of the decades of struggle for dominance between the US and the Soviet Union. Photo: AP

Lately we’ve heard hostile words and seen actions being taken by both sides that are reminiscent of the early days of that other Cold War. The US closed China’s embassy in Houston; China then closed the US embassy in Chengdu. Canada detained Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou on an extradition request from the US; China soon arrested two Canadians and put them in prison, some say as hostages. The US began limiting visas on China’s journalists in the US; China, in turn, has been refusing to renew the visas of journalists from US media.

Here in Hong Kong, we have seen the US slapping sanctions on our government officials, and on 14 vice-chairmen of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress. In response, China’s foreign ministry announced that they would prepare reciprocal sanctions, and cancel visa exemptions for temporary visits to Hong Kong and Macau by US diplomatic passport holders.