Even though it’s a truism that shipping is the principal force driving world trade, 2020 has thrown that into sharp relief. The shipping industry moves the vast majority of internationally traded materials (80-90 per cent), and is integral to the interlacing supply chains around the globe. So, anything which threatens the integrity of shipping’s ability to function as normal will also threaten to disrupt markets from Shanghai to Los Angeles. Covid-19 is the obvious culprit for the disruption that has hit the world economy this year. But in 2021, while the threat of the virus will remain, and properly preparing for recovery will be crucial, global shipping faces other challenges that must be addressed. Otherwise, not only will the global economy suffer, but we will also risk taking a backwards step on climate change, a progressive globalised economy, and preserving the well-being of the 2 million seafarers around the world. Here, then, are the four biggest challenges that I believe shipping will have to navigate in 2021: First, Covid-19 vaccinations for sailors. The news that successful vaccines have been developed and are in fact already being administered in several countries is a tonic in these troubled times. In 2021, the question will move from being one of creation, to one of distribution. Frontline health care staff are quite rightly among the first to receive the vaccine, but we must not forget that seafarers have to cross borders just to do their job. They must therefore be safe and should be prioritised for vaccinations. We are going to need to kick-start our economies to regain a semblance of normality, and shipping is key to this – especially for developing nations. China is the largest supply country for seafarers, so the vaccination of the Chinese maritime workforce will no doubt become an acute public health issue. Seafarers have endured being at sea long beyond their contracts due to the pandemic stopping safe crew changes, and have all the while selflessly kept trade routes open and busy. While 47 economies have stepped up so far and given sailors key worker status, they represent only a third of seafaring nations. In 2021, industry pressure will grow on governments around the world to give seafarers the recognition they deserve. The challenge will then be for governments that could not properly provide for crew changes in 2020 to handle the logistics of vaccinating the 2 million seafarers spread across the oceans in 2021. Second, decarbonisation. As an industry, we’ve been propelled into the spotlight in 2020, and we have also faced criticism that has been both just and unjustified. There has been significant progress on tackling the climate impact of the shipping industry, but much remains to be done. The Chinese government is under no illusion, too. As a major player in the global shipping sector, the decarbonisation of its shipping industry is already one of China’s priorities. And Beijing’s goal to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 is also piling on the pressure. How East Asia can drive the fight against climate change In 2021, progress will hinge on the ability to kick-start radical proposals to create a large-scale research and development fund that can accelerate the development of zero-emission fuel systems. Operational and technical improvements to ships alone will not satisfy the needs of campaigners or shipowners. Nation states, on the other hand, must figure out how to effectively create the framework and regulations to facilitate the transformation of this globalised industry. We are going to need to build a system that encourages the use of new technologies, but we can’t do this if the technologies do not exist. Third, the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) tax, which could introduce a carbon credits system for any ship operating in EU waters, is the one item on next year’s agenda that has the potential to derail global efforts. The EU views it as a win-win, encouraging ships to emit less greenhouse gases, while raising funds to help the bloc recover from Covid-19. However, non-EU countries are unhappy at what they see as an extraterritorial tax levied against them. Countries outside the EU argue that it can’t be right that a ship travelling thousands of miles, and calling at half a dozen ports along the way, is taxed by the EU for the entire voyage when it may simply be docking in a European port and letting crew disembark. How Hong Kong can help make shipping more sustainable Powerhouses such as China, alongside major shipping nations such as Japan and South Korea, have already come out publicly to oppose the measures. In the recovery from the pandemic, the EU can hardly risk a trade war with China and/or the US. The shipping industry urgently needs all governments to find a way of catalysing change, but one-sided unilateral approaches that may work on land do not work for an industry and workforce whose job is to cross borders. Finally, underpinning all of these challenges is the core concept of well-being for the world’s seafarers. These are the men and women who have kept global trade moving throughout the pandemic, who have made events such as Black Friday and Christmas happen for many. Yet they have also been kept at sea for far too long, away from their families and loved ones. Furthermore, other issues like piracy threats in the Gulf of Guinea and the Mediterranean loom large over the industry. The challenge for shipowners, industry bodies and nation states in 2021 will be to provide the protections that seafarers need and deserve. The importance of world shipping will not diminish, even after this strange year, but will only continue to grow as we see off the pandemic and undertake the long economic recovery from Covid-19. Yet we must not let this “black swan” event distract us from the significant challenges facing global shipping in 2021 and beyond, which we must tackle together. Beyond Covid-19, the global shipping industry and Chinese shipowners face many complex challenges next year. Esben Poulsson is chairman of the International Chamber of Shipping