For Hong Kong and the US to escape the low-fertility trap, the old must help the young
- The concentration of wealth among the older generation must be shared with the young, who need economic opportunities. Dialogue and generosity are needed to bridge the intergenerational divide
The US presidential election was notable for several reasons, including the unusually mature age of the candidates. Of the seven Democrat primary candidates, four would have been the oldest ever newly elected president, exceeding the record that President Donald Trump took from Ronald Reagan.
The US presidency is often described as the most powerful job in the world. For the leading candidates to be at post-retirement age is enough to make one consider what’s going on.
Is there something extraordinary about the levels of endurance that can be maintained nowadays, or is something making it more difficult for younger generations to attain positions of power?
Certainly, medical advancements and healthier living can explain some increases in performance in later years, but perhaps demographic data hints at an intergenerational challenge relevant to the United States, and also Hong Kong.
Hong Kong faces a similar problem, with those aged over 65 expected to make up almost a third of the population by 2041, from less than 20 per cent in 2020.
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It is important, therefore, to consider what it says about the condition of a society if more people lack the conviction to bring children into the world.
It is natural to want one’s children to have a better life than oneself, and studies point to the link between financial worries and less desire to have children.
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The old like to say that the younger generations have never had it so good. This may be true to the extent that today’s younger generations get to sit at the table with their elders and share in the harvest. Yet the young are also the ones left to pick up the bill later.
The concentration of wealth by the older generations is also apparent. According to Forbes, half of the 10 wealthiest Americans are older than 60. In Hong Kong, more than half are above retirement age, and four are in their 90s.
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We should certainly not begrudge those that did well during the booming 1970s and 1980s under Hong Kong’s free-market rules. However, upward mobility has declined in recent years.
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To level the playing field, resources and opportunities must be shared. Hong Kong should aspire to be a meritocracy. If it is not, and aspirational young people are left to bring a knife to a gunfight, it will be bad news for everyone as it will hamper innovation and stifle economic output.
Would-be scientists, entrepreneurs and engineers faced with hefty rents may choose the safe project rather than the one that could be most transformative.
The young may dismiss their elders as out of touch, just as some elders have a tendency to dismiss the young as naive. These are natural sentiments. But with the uncertainty brought by the pandemic, surely it is time to set aside stubborn arrogance, and to welcome fresh thinking and the chance to bridge divides.
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Consistent with the scientific method, we should be open to and seek evidence that may refute the positions we hold. This means being prepared to listen sincerely to those that may have alternative viewpoints or feel hard done by.
It is not obvious how the US can reconcile its divisions. But the spirit of Hong Kong has always been one of resilience and renewal. As we enter 2021, let us rekindle opportunities for dialogue and generosity between generations. Intergenerational understanding and mutual appreciation are much needed.
Paul Yip is an associate dean (research), and Edward Pinkney is a programme officer, in the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Hong Kong