From the Covid-19 pandemic to the elimination of the city’s special trade status under American law, from a seismic political transformation to the economy’s downward spiral, Hong Kong had a difficult 2020, to say the least – an annus horribilis that many are no doubt pleased to see the back of. Can we turn a new page in 2021 ? And how will Hong Kong-Beijing relations fare this year? Answering these questions requires a broader understanding of Beijing’s strategy vis-à-vis Hong Kong. The turmoil this city has endured over the past two years is widely viewed by elements in the establishment as a fundamental affront to both the local administration and the central government. For Hong Kong, the protests and the government’s handling of them exposed a dire lack of crisis and publicity management skills, and a general disconnect between the administration and the citizenry it purportedly serves. To Beijing, the actions of a radical minority transformed Hong Kong into a dangerous hotbed of insurgent extremism: for the government to back down would have meant caving in to the impossible demands of the crowd – a strict no-go for a regime that prioritises stability and the country’s collective interest above all else. Looking ahead, those hoping for democratic reform and political liberalisation through universal suffrage may well be disappointed, as the local administration seeks to depoliticise governance at large while toeing a risk-averse, conservative line when it comes to oppositional politics . Significantly greater emphasis will be put on political loyalty and the reassertion of the first half of the “one country, two systems” policy, as Beijing seeks to right what it views as a fundamental error – its relatively hands-off approach to the city’s domestic affairs in the first two decades after the handover. Yet one should hope that Beijing, too, is acutely aware that it is precisely for the purposes of preventing a recurrence of the violence in 2016 and 2019 that the city desperately needs more transparent, accountable and competent governance – none of which would necessitate drastic concessions. On the contrary, there is every need for frank, pragmatic dialogue; conversations about universal suffrage and how we could make governance more responsive and accountable. Indeed, Hong Kong and Beijing alike would benefit from an administration staffed by a well-qualified, professional elite that listens to the people on the ground, while making genuine improvements to public welfare. To restore peace, Hong Kong must accept the pain of drastic economic reform What of the economics then? Many in both Beijing and the Hong Kong establishment have said the anti-extradition bill protests were precipitated by rampant inequality and the chronic housing shortage in one of the most expensive cities in the world. There’s certainly some truth to that. Grass-roots pundits have zeroed in on land developers’ repeated refusal to provide the poor with affordable housing, while others have argued that youth unemployment and occupational stagnation are to blame for an entire generation being disillusioned and deprived of social mobility. Indeed, redistributive socioeconomic reforms would reflect the national zeitgeist, with Chinese bureaucrats under increasing pressure from the central government to take the country’s inequality seriously. Similarly, 2021 could herald the ramping up of redistributionist and expansionist housing policies, with – hopefully – a shift away from cash handouts towards more sustainable welfare reforms that cater to the needy, poor and old. The question is whether such ambitious reforms could succeed, given the deeply entrenched interest groups in the city. Hong Kong’s precarious finances should force rethink of Lantau Tomorrow Leading firms and the government should, however, look towards the Greater Bay Area – not because of political platitudes, but to seize the opportunities for entrepreneurial integration and exchange of innovation. It is tempting to write off the region’s economic opportunities as either a given or a drain on Hong Kong – it is harder, but necessary, to rethink how Hong Kong can boost its competitiveness as Shenzhen transforms by leaps and bounds. The administration could fare better if it stands with the public on issues like affordable living, employment opportunities and housing supply. Putting Hong Kong people first need not mean crossing any political line. Nor should it be a mere slogan. It is a commitment to lift up more than 1 million individuals languishing under the poverty line – which, to the administration’s credit, it has partially fulfilled . It is a commitment to govern responsibly and effectively. It is a commitment to ensure mainland migrants and Hong Kong residents are not at loggerheads. This city has been split asunder. An unpublished survey found that nearly 90 per cent of students had no confidence in the government. Some may choose to believe that with the literal laying down of the law, Hong Kong could return to normal – uncluttered streets rid of vigilante violence and police-civilian clashes, free of inconvenient protests and oppositional obstructionism. Yet it will take much more for genuine law and order to prevail again – for the law to be impregnable and efficacious, it must be respected and respectable. For public order to serve all citizens, including those who have grown disillusioned by recent events, there must be genuine changes to governance to absorb oppositional voices. Hong Kong desperately needs healing. Those in power should extend an olive branch; others should embark on a renewed, pragmatic kind of politics, which is – at its core – a matter of give and take. Perhaps then we could indeed begin anew in 2021. Brian YS Wong is a DPhil in Politics candidate at Balliol College, Oxford, a Rhodes Scholar (Hong Kong 2020) and the founding editor-in-chief of the Oxford Political Review