Coronavirus death toll and lingering effects show wisdom in science’s early warnings

As Covid-19 continues its rampage around the world, it seems wise to abandon meddling with viruses, and perhaps too late to heed other scientists’ warnings that doing so poses extraordinary risks to the public

Martin Williams

Published: 1:30am, 9 Jan 2021

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In January last year, as reports were emerging of a new coronavirus being detected outside mainland China, I wrote a column that suggested, “It can be readily transmitted by mobile people, and indeed cause a pandemic.”

This wasn’t conjecture, but rather it was based on science including evolutionary biology. It states that highly lethal viruses immobilise too many people to spread well, while those that allow high mobility can become widespread and exact a huge toll, like the Spanish flu of 1918, which killed about 50 million people worldwide.

Experts expressed concern, including Professor Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at the University of Hong Kong, who warned of the potential for a global pandemic. US epidemiologist Eric Feigl-ding tweeted, “It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad... I’m not exaggerating.”

Feigl-Ding shot to fame with this tweet and was criticised by infectious disease experts who considered him unduly alarmist. Yet the coronavirus now known as Covid-19 has proved to be “pandemic level bad”, and it might be far from finished.

Science can provide some insights into what might happen with Covid-19, along with ways to limit its impact. As experience shows, though, much depends on how humans react.

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One bizarre reaction, too common in the West, is to simply deny Covid-19 exists or is a problem. On New Year’s Eve, for instance, a group gathered outside a London hospital to shout “Covid is a hoax!” even as many people inside were suffering from the disease.

I’ve seen a notion that there’s no need to worry if you catch it as there’s a 99 per cent chance of survival. That has me envisaging an airline representative informing passengers, “Remember, 99 per cent of our flights don’t crash.”

That is likely to exaggerate the probability of surviving Covid-19. The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre reports more than 87 million cases worldwide with almost 1.9 million deaths – a case fatality rate of around 2.1 per cent. That might be too conservative, as many cases go unreported. Plus, people are not uniformly affected, with the risk of death soaring with advanced age.

Obesity is a risk factor, leading some to conclude Covid-19 is no big deal as young, healthy people are at little risk. That might seem all very well if you’re heartless, but it ignores the massive burden Covid-19 can impose on health care services, including because doctors are at high risk of infection. An investigation by The Guardian reports that 2,921 health care workers have died from Covid-19 in the US, most of whom were under 60.

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Covid-19 is not just a respiratory disease but can infect much of the cardiovascular system. There is the potential for even “mild” cases to result in long-lasting complications.

Perhaps 10 per cent or more of survivors could suffer “long Covid”. A paper in Nature Medicine reports symptoms such as extreme fatigue, muscle and joint pain, breathlessness, heart palpitations, and problems with attention, memory and cognition. A study of 201 “young, low-risk patients with ongoing symptoms of Covid-19” found they had signs of damage to multiple organs four months after being infected.

It’s important to strive to avoid infection. For all the newfangled technologies such as DNA sequencing, disease avoidance methods today – like wearing face masks and favouring outdoor activities over gathering indoors – are remarkably similar to those during the Spanish flu outbreak.

Researchers have shown Covid-19 can be spread through the air, notably from people who have yet to experience symptoms. It makes the adage “coughs and sneezes spread diseases” misleading in this case.

WHO acknowledges ‘evidence emerging’ of airborne spread of Covid-19

Yet I’m surprised to find virologists quibbling about the term “airborne”, with some asserting airborne spread has not been proven. They feel more data is required to show it can travel in particles far smaller than droplets. Some scientists have created a hashtag, #CovidisAirborne, aiming to push for stronger measures to counter aerosol spread of Covid-19.

Wouldn’t it be nice if Covid-19 would just disappear, like outgoing US President Donald Trump forecast? Vaccines offer some hope of this, notably those from Moderna and Pfizer, with data indicating more than 90 per cent effectiveness.

But while the vaccines were created with remarkable speed and efficiency, vaccinations are relatively sluggish. At current rates, it could take 10 years to adequately vaccinate the US, while parts of Africa might wait months or years to receive vaccines.

Then there are Covid-19 variants. The UK variant was first detected in southeast England in September and is spreading quickly. Another variant was detected in South Africa that is also more contagious than the original virus.

01:55

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman claims US army brought coronavirus to Wuhan

Other than these variants, Covid-19 has remained remarkably stable. From the outset, it was well equipped to infect humans. Almost a year ago, attention focused on a market in Wuhan as the supposed source of this coronavirus, but no animal source has been found.

The most similar coronaviruses yet found have been collected from bats in southwest China by a team working in collaboration with US scientists. They were experimenting on coronaviruses to see if they could infect humans, supported by US government money and based in a laboratory within Wuhan.

As Covid-19 continues its rampage around the world, it seems wise to abandon meddling with viruses in this way, and perhaps too late to heed other scientists’ warnings that doing so poses extraordinary risks to the public.

Martin Williams is a Hong Kong-based writer specialising in conservation and the environment, with a PhD in physical chemistry from Cambridge University