Opinion | How Hong Kong, Singapore and other high-income Asian societies can defuse their demographic time bomb

Name: Japan expects record low number of newborns in 2020
Uploaded: 2021-01-12T01:15:13.000Z
Duration: 1 min 42 s
Description: Japan expects record low number of newborns in 2020

With research findings suggesting an increase in the marriage rate of women aged 25-29 can significantly raise the total fertility rate, governments should do more to remove barriers for those who want to wed

Reading Time:3 minutes

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A woman walks past a signboard at a baby and children products expo at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre in Wan Chai on October 22. Photo: Felix Wong

Mengni ChenandPaul Yip

Published: 9:15am, 12 Jan 2021Updated: 9:40am, 12 Jan 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic, which shows no sign of abating, made 2020 a landmark year. But it was also a milestone year from a demographic perspective.

From January to November 2020, there were some 39,900 births and 45,400 deaths in Hong Kong, a natural decrease of 5,500 people. Births fell sharply, by 17 per cent, while deaths rose by 4 per cent during the first 11 months of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019. It is very likely that the annual number of deaths will exceed that of births for the first time in Hong Kong’s history.

It was the same story in Taiwan, with 147,702 births and 157,948 deaths. That’s 10,246 more deaths than births. In South Korea, there were 275,815 births, down 10.6 per cent from 2019, and 307,764 deaths, up 3.1 per cent from 2019. These demographic trends are likely to continue in these high-income Asian societies.

When these “demographic time bombs” explode, economies, social welfare systems and health care systems will be hit hard, due to the decline in the number of economically active people and the increase in dependence ratios. Prolonged low fertility and rapid population ageing pose increasing challenges to these societies.

01:42

Japan expects record low number of newborns in 2020

Many governments have adopted a series of family policies to raise the fertility rate, such as extending parental leave, providing flexible working hours, and offering a baby bonus. However, the effect of these policies has been modest. Estimates continue to place the total fertility rate at less than one child per woman in 2020 in most high-income Asian societies. However, for a population to replace itself, this rate needs to be 2.1.

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