New kind of cold war as US extends competition with China and Russia to the Arctic

China and Russia have stepped up activity in the region, with Beijing intensifying diplomatic efforts and self-identifying as a ‘near-Arctic’ nation
In response, the US has increased flights near Russia’s borders to record levels, reopened its Greenland consulate and set out an updated Arctic strategy

Danil Bochkov

Published: 1:30am, 13 Jan 2021

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The US Navy recently released its updated Arctic strategy, which calls for a new focus on competition with Russia and China in the region. The document, called “A Blue Arctic”, stresses that, “Without sustained American naval presence and partnerships in the Arctic Region, peace and prosperity will be increasingly challenged by Russia and China, whose interests and values differ dramatically from ours.”

The Communist Party-affiliated tabloid Global Times reacted by calling the “hegemonic US” the real threat to the Arctic. It said Washington “hypes” the Arctic agenda and Russia-China challenges because of the region’s political, economic and military significance.

A panel of Arctic security experts speaking at a Hudson Institute online forum said the United States “needs resilient people and resilient equipment” to meet mounting security and economic challenges posed by Russia and China. This conclusion is frustrating for Moscow and Beijing as they seek to engage with global powers to strengthen their own regional trade routes.

Russia lashed out in August after James DeHart, US coordinator for the Arctic region, called the Arctic “Nato’s northern flank”. The Federation Council called the statement “hostile and provocative”, adding that the US lacks the “strong voice in the Arctic as Russia has”.

This indicates that Russia-US strategic competition has expanded beyond traditional areas of their rivalry. In late July, the US State Department appointed DeHart with an aim to “strengthen the rules-based order in the region”. This contained an unambiguous allusion to China and Russia, both identified as the main US rivals in the Arctic.

02:27

Russia wants to build up its Arctic route with China, its top diplomat to Beijing says

In 2017 and 2018, China held exchange visits with Norway, Finland and Greenland to forge cooperation on issues including transport and shipment. Last month, China announced plans to launch a satellite to monitor Arctic shipping routes and ice conditions.

China’s actions did not go unnoticed by the US, which increased its diplomatic overtures in response. In June, the US opened its second Arctic consulate in Greenland for the first time since 1953. US President Donald Trump had floated an idea to purchase the island in 2019.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Iceland in July, making pointed remarks about China’s claim to be a “near-Arctic” nation. He reiterated his criticism of China’s self-identification in January, calling it “communist fiction” since China is almost 1,500km from the Arctic Circle. Beijing responded by questioning Washington’s proximity to the South China Sea.

The Arctic plays a paramount military role because Thule Air base, the northernmost US base, serves as a Nato defence outpost for satellite monitoring of Russian strategic missile activities. Increased US presence in the Arctic has sparked resentment in Russia. In June, Russian media reported a record number of post-Cold-War flights by US strategic bombers near Russia’s northern and Pacific borders.

03:08

China-made polar icebreaker reaches Antarctica on maiden voyage

China identified itself as “an important stakeholder in Arctic affairs” in 2018, marked by the publication of an Arctic policy white paper featuring its ambitions to promote a “Polar Silk Road” as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. It started with reinforcement of its icebreaker fleet, commissioning its first home-made vessel, Xuelong 2, in 2019.

China has embraced the commercial potential of the region. In 2017, it made its first voyage through the Northwest Passage. Shipping firm COSCO has plans for delivery services to Europe through the Arctic Ocean, a route 2,800 nautical miles shorter than going via the Suez Canal.

Russia also sees huge value in the Arctic and views it as its strategic backyard. The Arctic accounts for 10 per cent of Russia’s GDP, and the 2019 release of a revised Arctic development strategy to 2035 reinforced its economic and political significance.

A breakthrough in Russian Arctic policy happened in 2018 when the Ministry of Defence unveiled a new military airbase. It is the only inhabited facility in the Franz Josef Land archipelago, the northernmost territory of Russia.

Australia and US to take on China and Russia in hypersonic missiles

Russia announced plans in late December to deploy the country’s most advanced air-launched hypersonic missile in the Russian Arctic. The missile is capable of altering its trajectory in mid-flight to avoid missile defence systems.

Observers have noted that such a move would require Ottawa and Washington to adjust their military planning to new strategic realities. No wonder the US called on Canada in its Blue Arctic strategy to jointly oppose China and Russia.

Russia and China have combined their efforts to maximise the Arctic’s potential, starting long before the drastic deterioration of relations with the US. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute notes that both countries promoted joint commercial projects in oil and gas exploration, shipping and Northern Sea route infrastructure construction from 2013 to 2016.

Despite close interaction with Russia, China also operates on a parallel track where it promotes its own initiatives, such as infrastructure building and shipping development in the waters outside Russia’s exclusive economic zone. It may signify Chinese unwillingness to be too reliant on any other country in such a strategically important issue.

01:35

Chinese cargo ships sail along Arctic routes as Beijing plans ‘Polar Silk Road’

US Arctic policy is unlikely to change much under President-Elect Joe Biden, who has been critical of China and Russia’s global assertiveness and seeks to reestablish strong US alliances to counter Beijing and Moscow. Such an initiative dovetails with the Blue Arctic strategy, which has strengthening cooperative partnerships among its three paramount objectives.

While great power competition in the Arctic is different from the Cold War era, with rules and red lines not as clear, it still poses a challenge to peaceful development of the region. Swift militarisation by nuclear powers could provoke an arms race and turn the Arctic into a new battlefield.

Given the Arctic’s vital ecological and geographic role, this worst-case scenario could have dire repercussions for humanity.

Danil Bochkov is an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council