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War and conflict
Opinion
Zhou Bo

Opinion | US and China should learn from the Cold War to avoid an arms race and conflict

  • In spite of hostilities between the US and Soviet Union, professional communications were maintained and strengthened through verifiable confidence-building measures
  • Beijing and Washington should seek to do the same, establishing strategic equilibrium in new areas such as cyber and artificial intelligence, and in space

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Illustration: Craig Stephens
Last October, US and Chinese defence officials convened their first Crisis Communications Working Group to discuss crisis prevention and management. The meeting was unusual in discussing “crisis” for the first time, rather than “accidents”. It showed that the two militaries have begun to worry about things getting out of hand when bilateral ties go into free fall.

For over two decades, China-US military discussions have often been in a Catch-22 situation: Americans wanted technical discussions, say, on how to avoid close and dangerous encounters between ships and aircraft, while the Chinese would point out that these encounters in Chinese waters should simply stop.

Americans would then cite their right to freedom of navigation and overflight, and ask Chinese ships monitoring American vessels to keep a safe distance. The Chinese response? You are safest when you stay away.

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So, how can they avoid unwanted confrontation? The answer is: professionalism. During the Cold War, professionalism helped to avoid a nuclear fallout between two bitter enemies. This is reflected in the growing list of confidence-building measures that include the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

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Xi Jinping warns against ‘new Cold War’ and ‘confrontation’

Xi Jinping warns against ‘new Cold War’ and ‘confrontation’

China and the US are not enemies. But reducing the risks between them could be more challenging than it was for the US and the Soviet Union. First, there were clearly defined spheres of influence between Washington and Moscow, which allowed them to avoid direct confrontation.

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